Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2348-2 |
Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest | |
Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Kumar, Mukesh | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 152页码:569-579 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Anthropogenic climate warming has increased the likelihood of extreme hot summers. To facilitate mitigation and adaptation planning, it is essential to quantify and synthesize climate change impacts and characterize the associated uncertainties. By synergistically using projections of climate scenarios from an ensemble of regional climate models and a spatially explicit version of an empirical health risk model, here we quantify the mortality risk associated with excessive heat stress for people aged over 65years old across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Our results show that mortality risk is expected to intensify by a factor of 8-20 in the last 30years of the twenty-first century with respect to the historical period (1951-2005) if no climate change mitigation planning is undertaken. If global warming is limited to 2 degrees C, the mortality risk is expected to rise by a factor of 3-7 for the same period. Further analyses reveal that much of the increase in mortality risk is due to the increase in frequency of warm days rather than their intensity. Unfortunately, the poorest countries with least contribution to climate change are expected to be most impacted by it, as they will experience higher mortality risks compared to wealthier nations. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000462907000016 |
WOS关键词 | TEMPERATURE-RELATED MORTALITY ; CORRECTING SYSTEMATIC BIASES ; CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS ; FUTURE TEMPERATURE ; MIDDLE-EAST ; AFRICA ; DROUGHT ; IMPACT ; PRECIPITATION ; 2-DEGREES-C |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181495 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Alabama, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Ctr Complex Hydrosyst Res, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ahmadalipour, Ali,Moradkhani, Hamid,Kumar, Mukesh. Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,152:569-579. |
APA | Ahmadalipour, Ali,Moradkhani, Hamid,&Kumar, Mukesh.(2019).Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest.CLIMATIC CHANGE,152,569-579. |
MLA | Ahmadalipour, Ali,et al."Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest".CLIMATIC CHANGE 152(2019):569-579. |
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