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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2353-5 |
Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic | |
Geletic, Jan1,2; Lehnert, Michal3; Dobrovolny, Petr2,4; Zuvela-Aloise, Maja5 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 152页码:487-502 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Czech Republic; Austria |
英文摘要 | With global climate change ongoing, there is growing concern about future living conditions in urban areas. This contribution presents the modelled spatial distribution of two daytime (summer days, hot days), and two night-time (warm nights and tropical nights) summer climate indices in the recent and future climate of the urban environment of Brno, Czech Republic, within the framework of local climate zones (LCZs). The thermodynamic MUKLIMO_3 model combined with the CUBOID method is used for spatial modelling. Climate indices are calculated from measurements over three periods (1961-1990, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010). The EURO-CORDEX database for two periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) and three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) are employed to indicate future climate. The results show that the values of summer climate indices will significantly increase in the twenty-first century. In all LCZs, the increase per RCP 8.5 scenario is substantially more pronounced than scenarios per RCP 2.6 and 4.5. Our results indicate that a higher absolute increment in the number of hot days, warm nights and tropical nights is to be expected in already warmer, densely populated midrise and/or compact developments (LCZs 2, 3 and 5) in contrast to a substantially lower increment for forested areas (LCZ A). Considering the projected growth of summer climate indices and the profound differences that exist between LCZs, this study draws urgent attention to the importance of urban planning that works towards moderating the increasing heat stress in central European cities. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000462907000011 |
WOS关键词 | URBAN HEAT LOAD ; LARGE-EDDY SIMULATION ; TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; EURO-CORDEX ; CITIES ; HEALTH ; SCHEME ; CITY ; VARIABILITY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181490 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Czech Acad Sci, Inst Comp Sci, Dept Complex Syst, Vodarenskou Vezi 271-2, Prague 18207 8, Czech Republic; 2.Czech Acad Sci, Global Change Res Inst, Belidla 986-4a, Brno 60300, Czech Republic; 3.Palacky Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Geog, 17 Listopadu 12, Olomouc 77146, Czech Republic; 4.Masaryk Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Geog, Kotlarska 2, CS-61137 Brno, Czech Republic; 5.Zent Anstalt Meteorol & Geodynam, Hohe Warte 38, A-1190 Vienna, Austria |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Geletic, Jan,Lehnert, Michal,Dobrovolny, Petr,et al. Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019,152:487-502. |
APA | Geletic, Jan,Lehnert, Michal,Dobrovolny, Petr,&Zuvela-Aloise, Maja.(2019).Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic.CLIMATIC CHANGE,152,487-502. |
MLA | Geletic, Jan,et al."Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic".CLIMATIC CHANGE 152(2019):487-502. |
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