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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4371-4 |
The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill | |
Beverley, Jonathan D.1; Woolnough, Steven J.2; Baker, Laura H.2; Johnson, Stephanie J.3; Weisheimer, Antje3,4 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:3759-3771 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Forecasting seasonal variations in European summer weather represents a considerable challenge. Here, we assess the performance of a seasonal forecasting model at representing a major mode of northern hemisphere summer climate variability, the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT), and the implications of errors in its representation on seasonal forecasts for the European summer (June, July, August). Using seasonal hindcasts initialised at the start of May, we find that the model skill for forecasting the interannual variability of 500 hPa geopotential height is poor, particularly over Europe and several other centres of action of the CGT. The model also has a weaker CGT pattern than is observed, particularly in August, when the observed CGT wavetrain is strongest. We investigate several potential causes of this poor skill. First, model variance in geopotential height in west-central Asia (an important region for the maintenance of the CGT) is lower than observed in July and August, associated with a poor representation of the link between this region and Indian monsoon precipitation. Second, analysis of the Rossby wave source shows that the source associated with monsoon heating is both too strong and displaced to the northeast in the model. This is related to errors in monsoon precipitation over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, where the model has more precipitation than is observed. Third, the model jet is systematically shifted northwards by several degrees latitude over large parts of the northern hemisphere, which may affect the propagation characteristics of Rossby waves in the model. |
英文关键词 | Seasonal forecasting Teleconnection Indian monsoon |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000463842700070 |
WOS关键词 | INDIAN MONSOON ; VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181479 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 2BB, Berks, England; 2.Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 2BB, Berks, England; 3.ECMWF, Shinfield Pk, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England; 4.Univ Oxford, NCAS, Dept Phys, Oxford OX1 3PU, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Beverley, Jonathan D.,Woolnough, Steven J.,Baker, Laura H.,et al. The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:3759-3771. |
APA | Beverley, Jonathan D.,Woolnough, Steven J.,Baker, Laura H.,Johnson, Stephanie J.,&Weisheimer, Antje.(2019).The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,3759-3771. |
MLA | Beverley, Jonathan D.,et al."The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):3759-3771. |
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