Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4340-y |
Future projections of temperature changes in Ottawa, Canada through stepwise clustered downscaling of multiple GCMs under RCPs | |
Zhai, Yuanyuan1; Huang, Gordon1; Wang, Xiuquan2; Zhou, Xiong1; Lu, Chen1; Li, Zoe3 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:3455-3470 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | As the capital city of Canada, Ottawa has been experiencing significant impacts of global climate change. How to adapt to future climate change is one of the biggest concerns in the city's built and natural systems. It thusrequires a comprehensive understanding of possible changes in the local climate of Ottawa, which can hardly be reflected in the coarse outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs). Therefore, a stepwise clustered downscaling (SCD) model is employed in this study to help investigate the plausible changes in daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures in Ottawa. Outputs from multiple GCMs under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used as inputs to drive the SCD model in order to develop downscaled climate projections. The performance of SCD model is evaluated by comparing the model simulations to the observations (R-2>0.87) over the historical periods. Future temperature projections and their likely temporal trends throughout this century are analyzed in detail to explorethe regional variations of global warming in Ottawa, thus to provide scientific basis for developing appropriate adaptation strategies at different management levels. The results suggest that the City of Ottawa is likely to expect significant increasing trends in temperatures (i.e.,0.18-0.38 degrees C per decade in maximum temperature, 0.16-0.31 degrees C per decade in minimum temperature, and 0.17-0.34 degrees C per decade in mean temperature under RCP4.5; 0.46-0.54 degrees C per decade in maximum temperature, 0.37-0.45 degrees C per decade in minimum temperature, and 0.42-0.50 degrees C per decade in mean temperature under RCP8.5) throughout this century. |
英文关键词 | Stepwise clustered downscaling Temperature Ottawa Multiple GCMs Climate change Impact studies |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000463842700054 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; AIR-QUALITY ; ONTARIO ; PRECIPITATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; RAINFALL ; EVENTS ; MODELS ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181463 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Regina, Inst Energy Environm & Sustainable Communities, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada; 2.Univ Prince Edward Isl, Sch Climate Change & Adaptat, Charlottetown, PE C1A 4P3, Canada; 3.McMaster Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L8, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhai, Yuanyuan,Huang, Gordon,Wang, Xiuquan,et al. Future projections of temperature changes in Ottawa, Canada through stepwise clustered downscaling of multiple GCMs under RCPs[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:3455-3470. |
APA | Zhai, Yuanyuan,Huang, Gordon,Wang, Xiuquan,Zhou, Xiong,Lu, Chen,&Li, Zoe.(2019).Future projections of temperature changes in Ottawa, Canada through stepwise clustered downscaling of multiple GCMs under RCPs.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,3455-3470. |
MLA | Zhai, Yuanyuan,et al."Future projections of temperature changes in Ottawa, Canada through stepwise clustered downscaling of multiple GCMs under RCPs".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):3455-3470. |
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