Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4309-x |
Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill | |
DeFlorio, Michael J.1; Waliser, Duane E.1,2; Guan, Bin1,2; Ralph, F. Martin3; Vitart, Frederic4 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:3039-3060 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England |
英文摘要 | Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecasts of weather and climate extremes are being increasingly demanded by water resource managers, operational forecasters, and other users in the applications community. This study uses hindcast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) S2S forecast system to evaluate global subseasonal prediction skill of atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are intense lower tropospheric plumes of moisture transport that often project strongly onto extreme precipitation. An aggregate quantity is introduced to assess AR subseasonal prediction skill, defined as the number of AR days occurring over a week-long period (AR1wk occurrence). The observed pattern of seasonal mean AR1wk occurrence strongly resembles the general pattern of daily AR frequency. The ECMWF S2S forecast system generally shows positive (negative) biases relative to reanalysis in the mid-latitude regions in summer (winter) of up to 0.5-1.0 AR days in AR1wk occurrence in regions of highest AR activity. ECMWF AR1wk occurrence forecast skill outperforms a reference forecast based on monthly climatology of AR1wk occurrence at week-3 (14-20days) lead over a number of subtropical to midlatitude regions, with slightly better skill evident in wintertime. The magnitude and subseasonal forecast skill of AR1wk occurrence are shown to vary interannually, and both quantities are modulated during certain phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, Pacific-North America teleconnection pattern, and Madden-Julian Oscillation. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000463842700030 |
WOS关键词 | EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; SEASON ; PREDICTABILITY ; FORECASTS ; IMPACTS ; SURFACE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181439 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, 4800 Oak Grove Dr M-S 300-330, Pasadena, CA 91109 USA; 2.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Joint Inst Reg Earth Syst Sci & Engn, Los Angeles, CA USA; 3.Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, Ctr Western Weather & Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA; 4.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | DeFlorio, Michael J.,Waliser, Duane E.,Guan, Bin,et al. Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:3039-3060. |
APA | DeFlorio, Michael J.,Waliser, Duane E.,Guan, Bin,Ralph, F. Martin,&Vitart, Frederic.(2019).Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,3039-3060. |
MLA | DeFlorio, Michael J.,et al."Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):3039-3060. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论