Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4302-4 |
Prediction of summer hot extremes over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley | |
Yang, Kai1,2; Zhang, Jingyong1,2; Wu, Lingyun3; Wei, Jiangfeng4 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:2943-2957 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Substantial efforts have been made in recent decades to understand the characteristics and variations of summer hot extremes and the underlying physical processes involved. However, the seasonal prediction of summer hot extremes remains challenging. The populous middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (MLYR) in China are severely influenced by hot extremes during summer. This study presents seasonal predictions of summer hot extremes over the MLYR for the period 1979-2016 based on three preceding predictors that are closely linked to hot extremes over this region: spring soil moisture over the southeastern Indochina Peninsula (SIP); spring sea surface temperature (SST) over the western tropical Pacific (WTP); and the difference of Nino 3.4 SST data in May and the previous December. The soil moisture deficit over the SIP and warm SST over the WTP in spring, as well as the difference of Nino 3.4 SST data in May and the previous December, tend to result in positive geopotential height anomalies over the MLYR, which may favor hot extremes by enhancing downward solar radiation, subsidence warming and local soil moisture-temperature coupling associated with precipitation reduction. Using these three predictors, we demonstrate with cross validation that the temporal variations of hot extremes over the MLYR can be skillfully predicted for the study period (i.e., 1979-2016), while biases exist in the magnitude. Hindcast experiments for 2012-2016 show that high prediction skill can be achieved for the spatial patterns of hot extremes, with pattern correlation coefficients of 0.83-0.99. Our findings are expected to facilitate the practical prediction of hot extremes over the MLYR. |
英文关键词 | Seasonal prediction Summer hot extremes Soil moisture Sea surface temperature ENSO |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000463842700025 |
WOS关键词 | HIGH-TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC ; HEAT WAVES ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; EUROPEAN SUMMER ; OCEAN CAPACITOR ; CLIMATE ; CHINA ; VARIABILITY ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181434 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Ctr Monsoon Syst Res, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 4.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Int Joint Res Lab Climate & Environm Change, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster,Minist Educ, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yang, Kai,Zhang, Jingyong,Wu, Lingyun,et al. Prediction of summer hot extremes over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:2943-2957. |
APA | Yang, Kai,Zhang, Jingyong,Wu, Lingyun,&Wei, Jiangfeng.(2019).Prediction of summer hot extremes over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,2943-2957. |
MLA | Yang, Kai,et al."Prediction of summer hot extremes over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):2943-2957. |
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