Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4313-1 |
On the physical interpretation of the lead relation between Warm Water Volume and the El Nino Southern Oscillation | |
Izumo, Takeshi1,2; Lengaigne, Matthieu1,2; Vialard, Jerome1; Suresh, Iyyappan3; Planton, Yann1 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:2923-2942 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; India |
英文摘要 | The Warm Water Volume (WWV), a proxy for the equatorial Pacific heat content, is the most widely used oceanic precursor of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The standard interpretation of this lead relation in the context of the recharge oscillator theory is that anomalous easterlies during, e.g. La Nina, favour a slow recharge of the equatorial band that will later favour a transition to El Nino. Here we demonstrate that WWV only works as the best ENSO predictor during boreal spring, i.e. during ENSO onset, in both observations and CMIP5 models. At longer lead times, the heat content in the western Pacific (WWVW) is the best ENSO predictor, as initially formulated in the recharge oscillator theory. Using idealised and realistic experiments with a linear continuously stratified ocean model, and a comprehensive wave decomposition method, we demonstrate that spring WWV mostly reflects the fast Kelvin wave response to wind anomalies early in the year, rather than the longer-term influence of winds during the previous year. WWV is hence not an adequate index of the slow recharge invoked in the recharge oscillator. The WWVW evolution before spring is dominated by forced Rossby waves, with a smaller contribution from the western boundary reflection. WWVW can be approximated from the integral of equatorial wind stress over the previous similar to 10months, thus involving a longer-term time scale than WWV main time scale (similar to 3months). We hence recommend using WWVW rather than WWV as an index for the slow recharge before the spring predictability barrier. |
英文关键词 | El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Warm Water Volume(WWV) ENSO recharge oscillator Equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves ENSO precursors ENSO conceptual models CMIP5 climate models |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000463842700024 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; OCEAN RECHARGE PARADIGM ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; THERMOCLINE DEPTH ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; STATISTICAL PREDICTION ; HEAT-CONTENT ; ENSO ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181433 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.UPMC Univ Paris 06, Sorbonne Univ, LOCEAN, CNRS,IRD,MNHN,IPSL, Paris, France; 2.CSIR, Joint Int Lab, Indo French Cell Water Sci, IISc,NIO,IITM,IRD, Panaji, Goa, India; 3.Natl Inst Oceanog, CSIR, Panaji, Goa, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Izumo, Takeshi,Lengaigne, Matthieu,Vialard, Jerome,et al. On the physical interpretation of the lead relation between Warm Water Volume and the El Nino Southern Oscillation[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:2923-2942. |
APA | Izumo, Takeshi,Lengaigne, Matthieu,Vialard, Jerome,Suresh, Iyyappan,&Planton, Yann.(2019).On the physical interpretation of the lead relation between Warm Water Volume and the El Nino Southern Oscillation.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,2923-2942. |
MLA | Izumo, Takeshi,et al."On the physical interpretation of the lead relation between Warm Water Volume and the El Nino Southern Oscillation".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):2923-2942. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论