Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL080598 |
Diagnosing Secular Variations in Retrospective ENSO Seasonal Forecast Skill Using CMIP5 Model-Analogs | |
Ding, Hui1,2; Newman, Matthew1,2; Alexander, Michael A.2; Wittenberg, Andrew T.3 | |
2019-02-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
![]() |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:3页码:1721-1730 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Retrospective tropical Indo-Pacific forecasts for 1961-2015 are made using 28 models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) plus four models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), using a model-analog technique. Forecast ensembles are extracted from preexisting model simulations, by finding those states that initially best match an observed anomaly and tracking their subsequent evolution, requiring no additional model integrations. Model-analog forecasts from the 10 "best" CMIP5 models have skill for sea surface temperature and precipitation comparable to that of both the NMME model-analog forecast ensemble and (since 1982) traditional assimilation-initialized NMME hindcasts. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast skill has no trend over the 55-year period, and its decadal variations appear largely random, although the skill does improve during epochs of increased ENSO activity. Including the CMIP5-projected effects of external radiative forcings improves the tropical sea surface temperature skill of the model-analog forecasts but not within the ENSO region. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000462072800066 |
WOS关键词 | EL-NINO ; OCEAN ; PREDICTABILITY ; TEMPERATURE ; MODULATION ; PREDICTION |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181392 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 2.NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA; 3.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ding, Hui,Newman, Matthew,Alexander, Michael A.,et al. Diagnosing Secular Variations in Retrospective ENSO Seasonal Forecast Skill Using CMIP5 Model-Analogs[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(3):1721-1730. |
APA | Ding, Hui,Newman, Matthew,Alexander, Michael A.,&Wittenberg, Andrew T..(2019).Diagnosing Secular Variations in Retrospective ENSO Seasonal Forecast Skill Using CMIP5 Model-Analogs.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(3),1721-1730. |
MLA | Ding, Hui,et al."Diagnosing Secular Variations in Retrospective ENSO Seasonal Forecast Skill Using CMIP5 Model-Analogs".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.3(2019):1721-1730. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论