Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR023197 |
Hydrological Model Diversity Enhances Streamflow Forecast Skill at Short- to Medium-Range Timescales | |
Sharma, Sanjib1; Siddique, Ridwan2; Reed, Seann3; Ahnert, Peter3; Mejia, Alfonso1 | |
2019-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 55期号:2页码:1510-1530 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | We investigate the ability of hydrological multimodel ensemble predictions to enhance the skill of streamflow forecasts at short- to medium-range timescales. To generate the multimodel ensembles, we implement a new statistical postprocessor, namely, quantile regression-Bayesian model averaging (QR-BMA). Quantile regression-Bayesian model averaging uses quantile regression to bias correct the ensemble streamflow forecasts from the individual models and Bayesian model averaging to optimally combine their probability density functions. Additionally, we use an information-theoretic measure, namely, conditional mutual information, to quantify the skill enhancements from the multimodel forecasts. We generate ensemble streamflow forecasts at lead times from 1 to 7days using three hydrological models: (i) Antecedent Precipitation Index-Continuous, (ii) Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model, and (iii) Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system. As forcing to the hydrological models, we use weather ensemble forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 11-member Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast version 2. The forecasting experiments are performed for four nested basins of the North Branch Susquehanna River, USA. We find that after bias correcting the streamflow forecasts from each model, their skill performance becomes comparable. We find that the multimodel ensemble forecasts have higher skill than the best single-model forecasts. Furthermore, the skill enhancements obtained by the multimodel ensemble forecasts are found to be dominated by model diversity, rather than by increased ensemble size alone. This result, obtained using conditional mutual information, indicates that each hydrological model contributes additional information to enhance forecast skill. Overall, our results highlight benefits of hydrological multimodel forecasting for improving streamflow predictions. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000461858900033 |
WOS关键词 | COMBINING PREDICTIVE SCHEMES ; TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION ; ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ; INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; DAILY TEMPERATURE ; ATLANTIC REGION ; NEW-YORK ; PRECIPITATION ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181304 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Penn State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, State Coll, PA 16801 USA; 2.Univ Massachusetts, Northeast Climate Sci Ctr, Amherst, MA 01003 USA; 3.Middle Atlantic River Forecast Ctr, Natl Weather Serv, State Coll, PA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sharma, Sanjib,Siddique, Ridwan,Reed, Seann,et al. Hydrological Model Diversity Enhances Streamflow Forecast Skill at Short- to Medium-Range Timescales[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019,55(2):1510-1530. |
APA | Sharma, Sanjib,Siddique, Ridwan,Reed, Seann,Ahnert, Peter,&Mejia, Alfonso.(2019).Hydrological Model Diversity Enhances Streamflow Forecast Skill at Short- to Medium-Range Timescales.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,55(2),1510-1530. |
MLA | Sharma, Sanjib,et al."Hydrological Model Diversity Enhances Streamflow Forecast Skill at Short- to Medium-Range Timescales".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55.2(2019):1510-1530. |
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