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DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0389.1 |
Assessing Seasonal Predictability Sources and Windows of High Predictability in the Climate Forecast System, Version 2 | |
Miller, Douglas E.; Wang, Zhuo | |
2019-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:4页码:1307-1326 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The representation of ENSO and NAO are examined in the Climate Forecast System, version 2 ( CFSv2), reforecasts with a focus on the physical processes related to teleconnections and predictability. CFSv2 predicts ENSO well, but an eastward shift of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature ( SST) anomalies is evident. Although it appears minor on the global scale, the shift in convection and the large- scale wave train affects the model prediction of regional climate. In contrast, NAO is predicted poorly. The anomaly correlation coefficient ( ACC) between the model ensemble mean and the observation is 0.27 during 1982- 2010, and the ensemble spread is large. The representation of three sources of NAO predictability- SST, the stratospheric polar vortex, and the Arctic sea ice concentration- is investigated. It is found that the link between tropical Pacific SST and NAO is not well represented in CFSv2, and that the troposphericstratospheric interactions are too weak, both contributing to the poor prediction of NAO. Additionally, the impact of ENSO and NAO on prediction skill of CFSv2 in boreal winter is analyzed in terms of the spatial ACC of geopotential height. Active ENSO events exhibit larger prediction skill than neutral years, especially during the ENSO1/ NAO2 and ENSO2/ NAO1 winters. Spatial patterns of prediction skill are also examined, and larger skill of geopotential height and 2- m air temperature is found outlined by the nodes of the PNA pattern, consistent with the large signal- to- noise ratios associated with the ENSO teleconnection. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000473259100004 |
WOS关键词 | NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; WEATHER REGIMES ; SEA-ICE ; GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ; SST ANOMALIES ; ENSO ; PREDICTION ; IMPACT ; VARIABILITY ; EDDY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181279 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Illinois, Urbana, IL 61820 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Miller, Douglas E.,Wang, Zhuo. Assessing Seasonal Predictability Sources and Windows of High Predictability in the Climate Forecast System, Version 2[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(4):1307-1326. |
APA | Miller, Douglas E.,&Wang, Zhuo.(2019).Assessing Seasonal Predictability Sources and Windows of High Predictability in the Climate Forecast System, Version 2.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(4),1307-1326. |
MLA | Miller, Douglas E.,et al."Assessing Seasonal Predictability Sources and Windows of High Predictability in the Climate Forecast System, Version 2".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.4(2019):1307-1326. |
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