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DOI | 10.3354/cr01550 |
Spatiotemporal variations in temperature persistence in the south-central United States | |
Leasor, Zachary T.1; Quiring, Steven M.1; Ford, Trent W.2; McRoberts, D. Brent3 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0936-577X |
EISSN | 1616-1572 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 77期号:2页码:181-192 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Improved seasonal forecasting can help to mitigate the impacts of prolonged extreme heat, a prominent climate hazard in the south-central United States. Temperatures in this region exhibit significant temporal autocorrelation on monthly to seasonal timescales, and the magnitude of temperature persistence can provide useful information for seasonal climate forecasts. This study examines spatiotemporal variations in temperature persistence in the south-central US using high-resolution temperature data from 1900-2015. Consistent with previous studies, temperature persistence varies substantially across the region and is strongest during the summer months. Statistically significant temporal autocorrelations are primarily observed on a monthly timescale; however, at some locations, temperature persistence is also statistically significant at 3 mo timescales. This research builds upon previous findings by using the skill of monthly persistence forecasts to examine how temperature persistence varies with the magnitude of temperature anomalies. Results show that forecast skill regularly increases as the magnitude of the temperature anomalies increase. For example, anomalously warm temperatures during the spring can serve as an early warning for a warmer than normal summer. Our results suggest that persistence forecasts can aid in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of temperatures, particularly when anomalous conditions occur. |
英文关键词 | Seasonal forecasting Air temperature Climate High temperature events Variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000482741500007 |
WOS关键词 | AIR TEMPERATURES ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; HEAT-WAVE ; IMPACTS ; PRECIPITATION ; PREDICTION ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181249 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Ohio State Univ, Dept Geog, Columbus, OH 43210 USA; 2.Southern Illinois Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Resources, Carbondale, IL 62901 USA; 3.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Geog, College Stn, TX 77843 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Leasor, Zachary T.,Quiring, Steven M.,Ford, Trent W.,et al. Spatiotemporal variations in temperature persistence in the south-central United States[J]. CLIMATE RESEARCH,2019,77(2):181-192. |
APA | Leasor, Zachary T.,Quiring, Steven M.,Ford, Trent W.,&McRoberts, D. Brent.(2019).Spatiotemporal variations in temperature persistence in the south-central United States.CLIMATE RESEARCH,77(2),181-192. |
MLA | Leasor, Zachary T.,et al."Spatiotemporal variations in temperature persistence in the south-central United States".CLIMATE RESEARCH 77.2(2019):181-192. |
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