Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.3354/cr01547 |
Prediction of canola and spring wheat yield based on the Canadian Meteorological Centre's monthly forecasting system | |
Chipanshi, A. C.1; Qi, D.1; Zhang, Y.2; Lin, H.3; Newlands, N. K.4 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0936-577X |
EISSN | 1616-1572 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 77期号:2页码:155-165 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | With the goal of popularizing the use of readily available data sets from numerical weather prediction models in crop yield forecasting, we present a comparative analysis of end of season forecasts of wheat and canola from daily values of maximum and minimum temperature and total daily precipitation across the Canadian Prairies from (1) the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) and (2) statistically generated values from climate stations. The analysis was done using the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF), a tool for conducting crop yield outlooks within the growing season. We found that the GEPS data sets provided skillful forecasts of spring wheat and canola from selected Census of Agricultural Regions (CARs) in Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Aggregated results for the Prairie region showed that the GEPS data had a similar predictive skill as the statistically generated values of temperature and precipitation for spring wheat and showed improved prediction skill overall for canola from the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. In the Canadian Prairie environment, where climatic records are short and spatially insufficient, the GEPS data set, which is produced every Thursday and gridded at 45 km resolution, can be used as a substitute for, or supplement to, station-generated climate variables. Because of the continuous improvement in numerical prediction models such as GEPS in terms of skill score and resolution, the testing of crop forecasting models should be done at regular intervals to take advantage of these data sets as they become available. |
英文关键词 | Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster CCYF Canola Spring wheat Global Environmental Prediction System Normalized Difference Vegetation Index |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000482741500005 |
WOS关键词 | USE EFFICIENCY ; CORN ; BIOMASS ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/181247 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Agr & Agri Food Canada, Sci & Technol Branch, 300-2010-12th Ave, Regina, SK S4P 0M3, Canada; 2.Agr & Agri Food Canada, Sci & Technol Branch, 960 Carling Ave, Ottawa, ON K1A 0C6, Canada; 3.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Meteorol Ctr, 2121 Route Transcanadienne, Dorval, PQ H9P 1J3, Canada; 4.Agr & Agri Food Canada, Sci & Technol Branch, 4200 Highway 97, Columbia, BC V0H 1Z0, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chipanshi, A. C.,Qi, D.,Zhang, Y.,et al. Prediction of canola and spring wheat yield based on the Canadian Meteorological Centre's monthly forecasting system[J]. CLIMATE RESEARCH,2019,77(2):155-165. |
APA | Chipanshi, A. C.,Qi, D.,Zhang, Y.,Lin, H.,&Newlands, N. K..(2019).Prediction of canola and spring wheat yield based on the Canadian Meteorological Centre's monthly forecasting system.CLIMATE RESEARCH,77(2),155-165. |
MLA | Chipanshi, A. C.,et al."Prediction of canola and spring wheat yield based on the Canadian Meteorological Centre's monthly forecasting system".CLIMATE RESEARCH 77.2(2019):155-165. |
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