Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13626 |
Emergent climate and CO2 sensitivities of net primary productivity in ecosystem models do not agree with empirical data in temperate forests of eastern North America | |
Rollinson, Christine R.1,2; Liu, Yao3; Raiho, Ann4; Moore, David J. P.3; McLachlan, Jason4; Bishop, Daniel A.5; Dye, Alex6; Matthes, Jaclyn H.7; Hessl, Amy6; Hickler, Thomas8,9; Pederson, Neil5; Poulter, Benjamin10,11,12; Quaife, Tristan13; Schaefer, Kevin14; Steinkamp, Jorg8; Dietze, Michael C.1 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Germany; England |
英文摘要 | Ecosystem models show divergent responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to global change over the next century. Individual model evaluation and multimodel comparisons with data have largely focused on individual processes at subannual to decadal scales. Thus far, data-based evaluations of emergent ecosystem responses to climate and CO2 at multidecadal and centennial timescales have been rare. We compared the sensitivity of net primary productivity (NPP) to temperature, precipitation, and CO2 in ten ecosystem models with the sensitivities found in tree-ring reconstructions of NPP and raw ring-width series at six temperate forest sites. These model-data comparisons were evaluated at three temporal extents to determine whether the rapid, directional changes in temperature and CO2 in the recent past skew our observed responses to multiple drivers of change. All models tested here were more sensitive to low growing season precipitation than tree-ring NPP and ring widths in the past 30 years, although some model precipitation responses were more consistent with tree rings when evaluated over a full century. Similarly, all models had negative or no response to warm-growing season temperatures, while tree-ring data showed consistently positive effects of temperature. Although precipitation responses were least consistent among models, differences among models to CO2 drive divergence and ensemble uncertainty in relative change in NPP over the past century. Changes in forest composition within models had no effect on climate or CO2 sensitivity. Fire in model simulations reduced model sensitivity to climate and CO2, but only over the course of multiple centuries. Formal evaluation of emergent model behavior at multidecadal and multicentennial timescales is essential to reconciling model projections with observed ecosystem responses to past climate change. Future evaluation should focus on improved representation of disturbance and biomass change as well as the feedbacks with moisture balance and CO2 in individual models. |
英文关键词 | climate change climate sensitivity ecosystem model emergent response model-data comparison net primary productivity paleoecology tree rings |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000402514900019 |
WOS关键词 | WATER-USE EFFICIENCY ; ENVIRONMENT SIMULATOR JULES ; TERRESTRIAL CARBON-CYCLE ; ELEVATED CO2 ; PLANT GEOGRAPHY ; TREE GROWTH ; VEGETATION ; DYNAMICS ; TERM ; ENRICHMENT |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17863 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Boston Univ, Dept Earth & Environm, 685 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA 02215 USA; 2.Morton Arboretum, 4100 Illinois Route 53, Lisle, IL 60532 USA; 3.Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources, 1064 E Lowell St, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA; 4.Univ Notre Dame, Dept Biol Sci, Galvin Life Sci Ctr 176, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA; 5.Havard Forest, 324 N Main St, Petersham, MA 10366 USA; 6.West Virginia Univ, Dept Geol & Geog, POB 6300, Morgantown, WV 26506 USA; 7.Wellesley Coll, Dept Biol Sci, 106 Cent St, Wellesley, MA 02481 USA; 8.Senkenberg Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr BiK F, Senkenberganlage 25, D-60325 Frankfurt, Germany; 9.Goethe Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Geosci, Altenhoferallee 1, D-60438 Frankfurt, Germany; 10.NASA, Biospher Sci Lab, Goodard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD 22071 USA; 11.Montana State Univ, Inst Ecosyst, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA; 12.Montana State Univ, Dept Ecol, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA; 13.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Earley Gate,POB 243, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England; 14.Univ Colorado, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, 449 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rollinson, Christine R.,Liu, Yao,Raiho, Ann,et al. Emergent climate and CO2 sensitivities of net primary productivity in ecosystem models do not agree with empirical data in temperate forests of eastern North America[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(7). |
APA | Rollinson, Christine R..,Liu, Yao.,Raiho, Ann.,Moore, David J. P..,McLachlan, Jason.,...&Dietze, Michael C..(2017).Emergent climate and CO2 sensitivities of net primary productivity in ecosystem models do not agree with empirical data in temperate forests of eastern North America.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(7). |
MLA | Rollinson, Christine R.,et al."Emergent climate and CO2 sensitivities of net primary productivity in ecosystem models do not agree with empirical data in temperate forests of eastern North America".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.7(2017). |
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