Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13867 |
The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees | |
Marshall, Leon1,2; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.2,3; Rasmont, Pierre4; Vereecken, Nicolas J.5; Dvorak, Libor6; Fitzpatrick, Una7; Francis, Frederic8; Neumayer, Johann; Odegaard, Frode9; Paukkunen, Juho P. T.10; Pawlikowski, Tadeusz11; Reemer, Menno12; Roberts, Stuart P. M.13; Straka, Jakub14; Vray, Sarah1,4; Dendoncker, Nicolas1 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:1页码:101-116 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Belgium; Netherlands; Czech Republic; Ireland; Norway; Finland; Poland; England |
英文摘要 | Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% +/- 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% +/- 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns. |
英文关键词 | biodiversity loss dynamic future land use change scenarios pollinators projections species distribution models (SDMs) wild bees |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426506100038 |
WOS关键词 | SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; EUROPEAN POLLINATORS ; FUTURE ; CONSERVATION ; SCENARIOS ; COVER ; BIODIVERSITY ; DEPENDS ; BEE ; RICHNESS |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17854 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Namur, Dept Geog, Namur, Belgium; 2.Nat Biodivers Ctr, Leiden, Netherlands; 3.Leiden Univ, Inst Environm Sci CML, Leiden, Netherlands; 4.Univ Mons, Res Inst Biosci, Lab Zool, Mons, Belgium; 5.Univ Libre Bruxelles, LEPPS EIB, Agroecol & Pollinat Grp, Brussels, Belgium; 6.Municipal Museum Marianske Lazne, Marianske Lazne, Czech Republic; 7.Natl Biodivers Data Ctr, Beechfield House,Carriganore WIT West Campus, Carriganore, Cty Waterford, Ireland; 8.Univ Liege, Gembloux Agrobio Tech, Unit Funct & Evolutionary Entomol, Gembloux, Belgium; 9.Norwegian Inst Nat Res NINA, Trondheim, Norway; 10.Univ Helsinki, Zool Unit, Finnish Museum Nat Hist, Helsinki, Finland; 11.Nicolaus Copernicus Univ, Chair Ecol & Biogeog, Torun, Poland; 12.Nat Biodivers Ctr, EIS, Leiden, Netherlands; 13.Univ Reading, Sch Agr Policy & Dev, Ctr Agrienvironm Res, Reading, Berks, England; 14.Charles Univ Prague, Dept Zool, Fac Sci, Prague 2, Czech Republic |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marshall, Leon,Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.,Rasmont, Pierre,et al. The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(1):101-116. |
APA | Marshall, Leon.,Biesmeijer, Jacobus C..,Rasmont, Pierre.,Vereecken, Nicolas J..,Dvorak, Libor.,...&Dendoncker, Nicolas.(2018).The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(1),101-116. |
MLA | Marshall, Leon,et al."The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.1(2018):101-116. |
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