Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13879 |
Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios | |
Carboni, Marta1; Gueguen, Maya1; Barros, Ceres1; Georges, Damien1,2; Boulangeat, Isabelle3; Douzet, Rolland4; Dullinger, Stefan5; Klonner, Guenther5; van Kleunen, Mark6; Essl, Franz5; Bossdorf, Oliver; Haeuser, Emily6; Talluto, Matthew V.1; Moser, Dietmar5; Block, Svenja7; Conti, Luisa8; Dullinger, Iwona5,9; Munkemuller, Tamara1; Thuiller, Wilfried1 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
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ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:1页码:E289-E302 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; Denmark; Austria; Germany; Italy |
英文摘要 | Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large-scale invasions. However, climate change, land-use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land-use abandonment and tourism-linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range-sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range-size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land-use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasizes the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land-use transformations and overexploitation by tourism. |
英文关键词 | alien species biotic interactions dynamic vegetation model European Alps mountain environments ornamental species propagule pressure |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426506100023 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ALIEN PLANTS ; VEGETATION STRUCTURE ; DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; PROPAGULE PRESSURE ; SPECIES INVASIONS ; LAND ABANDONMENT ; SWISS ALPS ; DIVERSITY ; BIODIVERSITY |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17774 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Lab Ecol Alpine, LECA, Grenoble, France; 2.Int Agcy Res Canc, Lyon, France; 3.Dept Biosci, Sect Ecoinformat & Biodivers, Aarhus C, Denmark; 4.UMS 3370 UJF CNRS, Stn Alpine Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France; 5.Univ Vienna, Dept Bot & Biodivers Res, Fac Life Sci, Div Conservat Biol Vegetat & Landscape Ecol, Vienna, Austria; 6.Univ Konstanz, Dept Biol, Constance, Germany; 7.Univ Tubingen, Inst Evolut & Ecol, Tubingen, Germany; 8.Roma Tre Univ, Dipartimento Sci, Rome, Italy; 9.Alps Adria Univ, Fac Interdisciplinary Studies, Inst Social Ecol, Vienna, Austria |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Carboni, Marta,Gueguen, Maya,Barros, Ceres,et al. Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(1):E289-E302. |
APA | Carboni, Marta.,Gueguen, Maya.,Barros, Ceres.,Georges, Damien.,Boulangeat, Isabelle.,...&Thuiller, Wilfried.(2018).Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(1),E289-E302. |
MLA | Carboni, Marta,et al."Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.1(2018):E289-E302. |
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