Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13992 |
Toward ecologically realistic predictions of species distributions: A cross-time example from tropical montane cloud forests | |
Guevara, Lazaro1,2; Gerstner, Beth E.1,3; Kass, Jamie M.1,4; Anderson, Robert P.1,4,5 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:4页码:1511-1522 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Mexico |
英文摘要 | There is an urgent need for more ecologically realistic models for better predicting the effects of climate change on species' potential geographic distributions. Here we build ecological niche models using MAXENT and test whether selecting predictor variables based on biological knowledge and selecting ecologically realistic response curves can improve cross-time distributional predictions. We also evaluate how the method chosen for extrapolation into nonanalog conditions affects the prediction. We do so by estimating the potential distribution of a montane shrew (Mammalia, Soricidae, Cryptotis mexicanus) at present and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Because it is tightly associated with cloud forests (with climatically determined upper and lower limits) whose distributional shifts are well characterized, this species provides clear expectations of plausible vs. implausible results. Response curves for the MAXENT model made using variables selected via biological justification were ecologically more realistic compared with those of the model made using many potential predictors. This strategy also led to much more plausible geographic predictions for upper and lower elevational limits of the species both for the present and during the LGM. By inspecting the modeled response curves, we also determined the most appropriate way to extrapolate into nonanalog environments, a previously overlooked factor in studies involving model transfer. This study provides intuitive context for recommendations that should promote more realistic ecological niche models for transfer across space and time. |
英文关键词 | climate change ecological niche Last Glacial Maximum Mammalia MAXENT paleoecology species distribution |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426504400008 |
WOS关键词 | DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; NICHE MODELS ; GENETIC DIVERSITY ; SAMPLING BIAS ; MAXENT ; FUTURE ; TRANSFERABILITY ; COMMUNITIES ; CONSTRAINTS |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17730 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.CUNY City Coll, Dept Biol, 138Th St & Convent Ave, New York, NY 10031 USA; 2.Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Ciencias, Dept Biol Evolut, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; 3.Michigan State Univ, Dept Fisheries & Wildlife, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA; 4.CUNY, Grad Ctr, Program Biol, New York, NY USA; 5.Amer Museum Nat Hist, Div Vertebrate Zool Mammal, New York, NY 10024 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guevara, Lazaro,Gerstner, Beth E.,Kass, Jamie M.,et al. Toward ecologically realistic predictions of species distributions: A cross-time example from tropical montane cloud forests[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(4):1511-1522. |
APA | Guevara, Lazaro,Gerstner, Beth E.,Kass, Jamie M.,&Anderson, Robert P..(2018).Toward ecologically realistic predictions of species distributions: A cross-time example from tropical montane cloud forests.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(4),1511-1522. |
MLA | Guevara, Lazaro,et al."Toward ecologically realistic predictions of species distributions: A cross-time example from tropical montane cloud forests".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.4(2018):1511-1522. |
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