资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models have been rarely apt to represent human behaviour in transportation mode adoption. This paper contributes to the scientific literature by using an E4 model to analyse the long-term decarbonisation of the Danish transport sector. The study is carried out with TIMES-DK, the integrated energy system model of Denmark, which has been expanded in order to endogenously determine modal shares. The methodology extends the technology competition within the modes to competition across modes by aggregating the passenger modal travel demands into demand segments based on the distance range. Modal shift is based not only on the levelised costs of the modes, but also on speed and infrastructure requirement. Constraints derived from the National Travel Survey guarantee consistent travel habits and avoid unrealistic modal shifts. The comparison of model versions with and without modal shift identifies its positive contribution to the fulfilment of the Danish environmental targets. Four sensitivity analyses on the key variables of modal shift assess how their alternative realizations affect the decarbonisation of the transport sector and enable shifting away from car. The results indicate that less strict travel time budget (1113) and increased speed of public bus lead to a more efficient decarbonisation by 2050.