Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.040 |
Investment in electricity capacity under fuel cost uncertainty: Dual-fuel and a mix of single-fuel technologies | |
Gal, Nurit1; Milstein, Irena2; Tishler, Asher3; Woo, C. K.4 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENERGY POLICY |
ISSN | 0301-4215 |
EISSN | 1873-6777 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 126页码:518-532 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Israel; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | We study the effect of the price and price volatility of natural gas on investment in electricity capacity in two technology scenarios: (1) dual-fuel units that use natural gas and diesel; and (2) a mix of single-fuel plants that use coal or natural gas. We develop a two-stage (capacity and operation) model and derive analytical solutions for both scenarios. Based on the observed log-normal distribution of the natural gas price, we show that optimal capacity investment increases moderately with natural gas price volatility, countering a commonly held view that fuel cost uncertainty tends to discourage capacity investment. Thus, higher volatility of the natural gas price tends to reduce the 'missing money' problem. We use Texas data to show that higher gas price volatility implies higher profits and consumer surplus in the first scenario, even when the per MWh diesel cost is much higher than the expected value of the per MWh gas cost. In the second scenario, firms invest only in gas capacity, unless the per MWh coal cost is significantly below the expected per MWh gas cost, thus explaining the popularity of gas generation. |
英文关键词 | Natural gas price volatility Investment under uncertainty Capacity mix Dual-fuel plants Electricity price behavior |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000457952000046 |
WOS关键词 | NATURAL-GAS ; MARKETS ; PRICE ; POWER ; GENERATION ; PORTFOLIO ; EFFICIENCY ; SECTOR |
WOS类目 | Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17657 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Publ Util Author Elect, Jerusalem, Israel; 2.Holon Inst Technol, Holon, Israel; 3.Tel Aviv Univ, Fac Management, Tel Aviv, Israel; 4.Educ Univ Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gal, Nurit,Milstein, Irena,Tishler, Asher,et al. Investment in electricity capacity under fuel cost uncertainty: Dual-fuel and a mix of single-fuel technologies[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2019,126:518-532. |
APA | Gal, Nurit,Milstein, Irena,Tishler, Asher,&Woo, C. K..(2019).Investment in electricity capacity under fuel cost uncertainty: Dual-fuel and a mix of single-fuel technologies.ENERGY POLICY,126,518-532. |
MLA | Gal, Nurit,et al."Investment in electricity capacity under fuel cost uncertainty: Dual-fuel and a mix of single-fuel technologies".ENERGY POLICY 126(2019):518-532. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论