Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14138 |
How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability | |
Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.1; Blois, Jessica L.2; Williams, John W.3,4; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego1,5; Maguire, Kaitlin C.2,6; Lorenz, David J.3 | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
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ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:8页码:3575-3586 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Spain |
英文摘要 | Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future climate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co-occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantifying future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improvement, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assemblage-level information. |
英文关键词 | climate change climate novelty community-level modeling ecological forecasting no-analog climate Quaternary species distribution modeling |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000437284700026 |
WOS关键词 | SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; VEGETATION DYNAMICS ; EXTINCTION RISK ; NORTH-AMERICA ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; BIODIVERSITY ; SPACE ; TIME ; COMMUNITIES ; TEMPERATURE |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17553 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Maryland, Ctr Environm Sci, Appalachian Lab, Frostburg, MD 21532 USA; 2.Univ Calif Merced, Sch Nat Sci, Merced, CA USA; 3.Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Climat Res, Madison, WI USA; 4.Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA; 5.Univ Cordoba, Dept Bot Ecol & Plant Physiol, Cordoba, Spain; 6.Coll Idaho, Orma J Smith Museum Nat Hist, Caldwell, ID USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.,Blois, Jessica L.,Williams, John W.,et al. How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(8):3575-3586. |
APA | Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.,Blois, Jessica L.,Williams, John W.,Nieto-Lugilde, Diego,Maguire, Kaitlin C.,&Lorenz, David J..(2018).How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(8),3575-3586. |
MLA | Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.,et al."How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.8(2018):3575-3586. |
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