Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13979 |
Carbon cycle confidence and uncertainty: Exploring variation among soil biogeochemical models | |
Wieder, William R.1,2; Hartman, Melannie D.2,3; Sulman, Benjamin N.4; Wang, Ying-Ping5,6; Koven, Charles D.7; Bonan, Gordon B.2 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:4页码:1563-1579 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Peoples R China; Australia |
英文摘要 | Emerging insights into factors responsible for soil organic matter stabilization and decomposition are being applied in a variety of contexts, but new tools are needed to facilitate the understanding, evaluation, and improvement of soil biogeochemical theory and models at regional to global scales. To isolate the effects of model structural uncertainty on the global distribution of soil carbon stocks and turnover times we developed a soil biogeochemical testbed that forces three different soil models with consistent climate and plant productivity inputs. The models tested here include a first-order, microbial implicit approach (CASA-CNP), and two recently developed microbially explicit models that can be run at global scales (MIMICS and CORPSE). When forced with common environmental drivers, the soil models generated similar estimates of initial soil carbon stocks (roughly 1,400Pg C globally, 0-100cm), but each model shows a different functional relationship between mean annual temperature and inferred turnover times. Subsequently, the models made divergent projections about the fate of these soil carbon stocks over the 20(th) century, with models either gaining or losing over 20 Pg C globally between 1901 and 2010. Single-forcing experiments with changed inputs, temperature, and moisture suggest that uncertainty associated with freeze-thaw processes as well as soil textural effects on soil carbon stabilization were larger than direct temperature uncertainties among models. Finally, the models generated distinct projections about the timing and magnitude of seasonal heterotrophic respiration rates, again reflecting structural uncertainties that were related to environmental sensitivities and assumptions about physicochemical stabilization of soil organic matter. By providing a computationally tractable and numerically consistent framework to evaluate models we aim to better understand uncertainties among models and generate insights about factors regulating the turnover of soil organic matter. |
英文关键词 | biogeochemistry carbon cycle earth system models global change microbial models soil organic matter structural uncertainty turnover time |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426504400012 |
WOS关键词 | ORGANIC-MATTER DECOMPOSITION ; EARTH SYSTEM MODELS ; TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY ; SEASONAL CYCLE ; RESIDENCE TIME ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; C DYNAMICS ; RESPIRATION ; TURNOVER ; STORAGE |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17518 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 2.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 3.Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA; 4.Princeton Univ, Program Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 5.Chinese Acad Sci, South China Bot Garden, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; 6.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Aspendale, Vic, Australia; 7.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wieder, William R.,Hartman, Melannie D.,Sulman, Benjamin N.,et al. Carbon cycle confidence and uncertainty: Exploring variation among soil biogeochemical models[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(4):1563-1579. |
APA | Wieder, William R.,Hartman, Melannie D.,Sulman, Benjamin N.,Wang, Ying-Ping,Koven, Charles D.,&Bonan, Gordon B..(2018).Carbon cycle confidence and uncertainty: Exploring variation among soil biogeochemical models.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(4),1563-1579. |
MLA | Wieder, William R.,et al."Carbon cycle confidence and uncertainty: Exploring variation among soil biogeochemical models".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.4(2018):1563-1579. |
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