Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13444 |
Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States | |
Pourmokhtarian, Afshin1; Driscoll, Charles T.1; Campbell, John L.2; Hayhoe, Katharine3; Stoner, Anne M. K.3; Adams, Mary Beth4; Burns, Douglas5; Fernandez, Ivan6,7; Mitchell, Myron J.8; Shanley, James B.9 | |
2017-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO2 effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a challenge to water resource management in the northeastern United States. Our analyses suggest that dominant vegetation type and soil type are important attributes in determining future hydrological responses to climate change. |
英文关键词 | climate change CMIP5 ecohydrology ecosystem modeling northeastern United States water stress water use efficiency watershed |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000394343300033 |
WOS关键词 | NORTHERN HARDWOOD FOREST ; AIR CO2 ENRICHMENT ; ELEVATED CO2 ; NEW-YORK ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; LAND-USE ; ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION ; NITROGEN DEPOSITION ; CATSKILL REGIONS ; SURFACE WATERS |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17501 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Syracuse Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Syracuse, NY 13244 USA; 2.US Forest Serv, Northern Res Stn, Durham, NH 03824 USA; 3.Texas Tech Univ, Climate Sci Ctr, Lubbock, TX 79409 USA; 4.US Forest Serv, Northern Res Stn, Morgantown, WV 26505 USA; 5.US Geol Survey, Troy, NY 12180 USA; 6.Univ Maine, Sch Forest Resources, Orono, ME 04469 USA; 7.Univ Maine, Climate Change Inst, Orono, ME 04469 USA; 8.SUNY ESF, Dept Environm Resources Engn, Syracuse, NY 13210 USA; 9.US Geol Survey, Montpelier, VT 05601 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pourmokhtarian, Afshin,Driscoll, Charles T.,Campbell, John L.,et al. Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(2). |
APA | Pourmokhtarian, Afshin.,Driscoll, Charles T..,Campbell, John L..,Hayhoe, Katharine.,Stoner, Anne M. K..,...&Shanley, James B..(2017).Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(2). |
MLA | Pourmokhtarian, Afshin,et al."Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.2(2017). |
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