Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13617 |
The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2 | |
Jin, Zhenong1; Zhuang, Qianlai1,2; Wang, Jiali3; Archontoulis, Sotirios V.4; Zobel, Zachary5; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.3 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high-resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995-2004 and 2085-2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in the US Midwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO2 partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize production under RCP4.5 and soybean production under both RCP scenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize under RCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems. |
英文关键词 | Agricultural Production Systems Simulator climate change drought elevated CO2 heat maize soybean |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000402514900015 |
WOS关键词 | CARBON-DIOXIDE ENRICHMENT ; MIDWESTERN UNITED-STATES ; OPEN-AIR ELEVATION ; HIGH-TEMPERATURE ; HEAT-STRESS ; TRANSPIRATION RESPONSES ; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE ; SYSTEMS SIMULATION ; HISTORICAL MAIZE ; ATMOSPHERIC CO2 |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17457 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Purdue Univ, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA; 2.Purdue Univ, Dept Agron, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA; 3.Argonne Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, 9700 S Cass Ave, Argonne, IL 60439 USA; 4.Iowa State Univ, Dept Agron, Ames, IA 50011 USA; 5.Univ Illinois Champaign Urbana, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61801 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jin, Zhenong,Zhuang, Qianlai,Wang, Jiali,et al. The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(7). |
APA | Jin, Zhenong,Zhuang, Qianlai,Wang, Jiali,Archontoulis, Sotirios V.,Zobel, Zachary,&Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R..(2017).The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(7). |
MLA | Jin, Zhenong,et al."The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.7(2017). |
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