Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14104 |
Global patterns of nonanalogous climates in the past and future derived from thermal and hydraulic factors | |
Li, Qin1,2; Kou, Xiaojun1,3; Beierkuhnlein, Carl4; Liu, Shirong5; Ge, Jianping1 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:6页码:2463-2475 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Canada; Germany |
英文摘要 | Nonanalogous climates (NACs), climates without modern analogs on Earth, challenge our understanding of eco-evolutionary processes that shape global biodiversity, particularly because of their propensity to promote novel ecosystems. However, NAC studies are generally inadequate and partial. Specifically, systematic comparisons between the future and the past are generally lacking, and hydraulic NACs tend to be underemphasized. In the present study, by adopting a frequency distributionbased method that facilitates the procedures of contributions parsing and conducting multiple comparisons, we provide a global overview of multidimensional NACs for both the past and the future within a unified framework. We show that NACs are globally prevalent, covering roughly half of the land area across the time-periods under investigation, and have a high degree of spatial structure. Patterns of NACs differ dramatically between the past and the future. Hydraulic NACs are more complex both in spatial patterns and in major contributions of variables than are thermal NACs. However, hydraulic NACs are more predictable than originally thought. Generally, hydraulic NACs in the future (2100 AD) exhibit comparable predictability to thermal NACs in the last glacial maximum (LGM) (21k BP). Identifying these NAC patterns has potential implications on climate-adaptive managements and preparing in advance to possibly frequent novel ecosystems. However, a learning-fromthe- past strategy might be of limited utility for management under present circumstances. |
英文关键词 | future climates hydraulic factors last glacial maximum middle holocene nonanalogous climate novel ecosystems thermal factors |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000433717700020 |
WOS关键词 | SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; NONNATIVE PLANTS ; CHANGING CLIMATE ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; CONSERVATION ; ECOSYSTEMS ; RESPONSES ; VELOCITY ; ANALOG ; BIODIVERSITY |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17403 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Life Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Univ British Columbia, Dept Bot, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Key Lab Biodivers Sci & Ecol Engn, Minist Educ, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.Univ Bayreuth, Dept Biogeog, BayCEER, GIB, Bayreuth, Germany; 5.Chinese Acad Forestry, Inst Forest Ecol Environm & Protect, Key Lab Chinas State Forestry Adm Forest Ecol & E, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Qin,Kou, Xiaojun,Beierkuhnlein, Carl,et al. Global patterns of nonanalogous climates in the past and future derived from thermal and hydraulic factors[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(6):2463-2475. |
APA | Li, Qin,Kou, Xiaojun,Beierkuhnlein, Carl,Liu, Shirong,&Ge, Jianping.(2018).Global patterns of nonanalogous climates in the past and future derived from thermal and hydraulic factors.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(6),2463-2475. |
MLA | Li, Qin,et al."Global patterns of nonanalogous climates in the past and future derived from thermal and hydraulic factors".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.6(2018):2463-2475. |
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