Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13809 |
Multi-century tree-ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment | |
Mokria, Mulugeta1,2; Gebrekirstos, Aster1; Abiyu, Abrham3; Van Noordwijk, Meine1,4; Braeuning, Achim2 | |
2017-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:12 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Kenya; Germany; Ethiopia; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Climate-related environmental and humanitarian crisis are important challenges in the Great Horn of Africa (GHA). In the absence of long-term past climate records in the region, tree-rings are valuable climate proxies, reflecting past climate variations and complementing climate records prior to the instrumental era. We established annually resolved multi-century tree-ring chronology from Juniperus procera trees in northern Ethiopia, the longest series yet for the GHA. The chronology correlates significantly with wet-season (r=.64, p<.01) and annual (r=.68, p<.01) regional rainfall. Reconstructed rainfall since A.D. 1811 revealed significant interannual variations between 2.2 and 3.8 year periodicity, with significant decadal and multidecadal variations during 1855-1900 and 1960-1990. The duration of negative and positive rainfall anomalies varied between 1-7years and 1-8years. Approximately 78.4% (95%) of reconstructed dry (extreme dry) and 85.4% (95%) of wet (extreme wet) events lasted for 1 year only and corresponded to historical records of famine and flooding, suggesting that future climate change studies should be both trend and extreme event focused. The average return periods for dry (extreme dry) and wet (extreme wet) events were 4.1 (8.8) years and 4.1 (9.5) years. Extreme-dry conditions during the 19th century were concurrent with drought episodes in equatorial eastern Africa that occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age. El Nino and La Nina events matched with 38.5% and 50% of extreme-dry and extreme-wet events. Equivalent matches for positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events were weaker, reaching 23.1 and 25%, respectively. Spatial correlations revealed that reconstructed rainfall represents wet-season rainfall variations over northern Ethiopia and large parts of the Sahel belt. The data presented are useful for backcasting climate and hydrological models and for developing regional strategic plans to manage scarce and contested water resources. Historical perspectives on long-term regional rainfall variability improve the interpretation of recent climate trends. |
英文关键词 | climate variability dendroclimatology East Africa El Nino-Southern Oscillation extreme events famine and flooding Indian ocean dipole Little Ice Age |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000414969000040 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-GROWTH RELATIONSHIPS ; RAINFALL VARIABILITY ; WATER-RESOURCES ; EAST-AFRICA ; RECONSTRUCTION ; TRENDS ; DENDROCLIMATOLOGY ; TELECONNECTION ; SENSITIVITY ; CALIBRATION |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17380 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.World Agroforestry Ctr ICRAF, United Nations Ave, Nairobi, Kenya; 2.Friedrich Alexander Univ Erlangen Nuremberg, Inst Geog, Erlangen, Germany; 3.Amhara Agr Res Inst ARARI, Bahir Dar, Amhara Region, Ethiopia; 4.Wageningen Univ, Plant Prod Syst, Wageningen, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mokria, Mulugeta,Gebrekirstos, Aster,Abiyu, Abrham,et al. Multi-century tree-ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(12). |
APA | Mokria, Mulugeta,Gebrekirstos, Aster,Abiyu, Abrham,Van Noordwijk, Meine,&Braeuning, Achim.(2017).Multi-century tree-ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(12). |
MLA | Mokria, Mulugeta,et al."Multi-century tree-ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.12(2017). |
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