Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13421 |
Extinct or still out there? Disentangling influences on extinction and rediscovery helps to clarify the fate of species on the edge | |
Lee, Tamsin E.1; Fisher, Diana O.2; Blomberg, Simon P.2; Wintle, Brendan A.3 | |
2017-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Australia |
英文摘要 | Each year, two or three species that had been considered to be extinct are rediscovered. Uncertainty about whether or not a species is extinct is common, because rare and highly threatened species are difficult to detect. Biological traits such as body size and range size are expected to be associated with extinction. However, these traits, together with the intensity of search effort, might influence the probability of detection and extinction differently. This makes statistical analysis of extinction and rediscovery challenging. Here, we use a variant of survival analysis known as cure rate modelling to differentiate factors that influence rediscovery from those that influence extinction. We analyse a global data set of 99 mammals that have been categorized as extinct or possibly extinct. We estimate the probability that each of these mammals is still extant and thus estimate the proportion of missing (presumed extinct) mammals that are incorrectly assigned extinction. We find that body mass and population density are predictors of extinction, and body mass and search effort predict rediscovery. In mammals, extinction rate increases with body mass and population density, and these traits act synergistically to greatly elevate extinction rate in large species that also occurred in formerly dense populations. However, when they remain extant, larger-bodied missing species are rediscovered sooner than smaller species. Greater search effort increases the probability of rediscovery in larger species of missing mammals, but has a minimal effect on small species, which take longer to be rediscovered, if extant. By separating the effects of species characteristics on extinction and detection, and using models with the assumption that a proportion of missing species will never be rediscovered, our new approach provides estimates of extinction probability in species with few observation records and scant ecological information. |
英文关键词 | cure rate model detectability Lazarus mammalia search effort |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000394343300015 |
WOS关键词 | INFERRING EXTINCTION ; SIGHTING RECORDS ; RANGE SIZE ; RISK ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17364 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Oxford, Math Inst, Andrew Wiles Bldg, Oxford, England; 2.Univ Queensland, Sch Biol Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia; 3.Univ Melbourne, Sch Biosci, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lee, Tamsin E.,Fisher, Diana O.,Blomberg, Simon P.,et al. Extinct or still out there? Disentangling influences on extinction and rediscovery helps to clarify the fate of species on the edge[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(2). |
APA | Lee, Tamsin E.,Fisher, Diana O.,Blomberg, Simon P.,&Wintle, Brendan A..(2017).Extinct or still out there? Disentangling influences on extinction and rediscovery helps to clarify the fate of species on the edge.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(2). |
MLA | Lee, Tamsin E.,et al."Extinct or still out there? Disentangling influences on extinction and rediscovery helps to clarify the fate of species on the edge".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.2(2017). |
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