Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13570 |
Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America | |
Case, Michael; Lawler, Joshua | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate-driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species-specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate-driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over-predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions. |
英文关键词 | climate change correlative DGVM niche model northwestern North America process-based species distribution model species range |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000397800600020 |
WOS关键词 | BIOCLIMATE ENVELOPE MODELS ; WASHINGTON-STATE ; CHANGING CLIMATE ; HABITAT MODELS ; RANGE ; FORESTS ; USA ; DISTURBANCE ; MIGRATION ; ECOSYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17224 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Univ Washington, Sch Environm & Forest Sci, Box 352100, Seattle, WA 98195 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Case, Michael,Lawler, Joshua. Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(5). |
APA | Case, Michael,&Lawler, Joshua.(2017).Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(5). |
MLA | Case, Michael,et al."Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.5(2017). |
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