Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14562 |
Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change | |
Peterson, Megan L.1; Doak, Daniel F.1; Morris, William F.2 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 25期号:3页码:775-793 |
文章类型 | Review |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographic ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade-off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to nonclimatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species-level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA. |
英文关键词 | climate change forecast landscape demography local adaptation mechanistic distribution model response function species distribution model transfer function |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000459456700002 |
WOS关键词 | RANGE SHIFTS ; GENE FLOW ; POPULATION-DYNAMICS ; DEMOGRAPHIC COMPENSATION ; CONSERVING BIODIVERSITY ; INTRASPECIFIC VARIATION ; RECIPROCAL TRANSPLANTS ; EVOLUTIONARY PROCESSES ; PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY ; RESPONSE FUNCTIONS |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17160 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Colorado Boulder, Environm Studies Program, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 2.Duke Univ, Dept Biol, Durham, NC USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Peterson, Megan L.,Doak, Daniel F.,Morris, William F.. Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2019,25(3):775-793. |
APA | Peterson, Megan L.,Doak, Daniel F.,&Morris, William F..(2019).Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,25(3),775-793. |
MLA | Peterson, Megan L.,et al."Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 25.3(2019):775-793. |
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