Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13411 |
A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels | |
Fleisher, David H.1; Condori, Bruno1; Quiroz, Roberto2; Alva, Ashok3; Asseng, Senthold4; Barreda, Carolina2; Bindi, Marco5; Boote, Kenneth J.4; Ferrise, Roberto5; Franke, Angelinus C.6; Govindakrishnan, Panamanna M.7; Harahagazwe, Dieudonne8; Hoogenboom, Gerrit4; Kumar, Soora Naresh9; Merante, Paolo5; Nendel, Claas10; Olesen, Jorgen E.11; Parker, Phillip S.10; Raes, Dirk12; Raymundo, Rubi4; Ruane, Alex C.13; Stockle, Claudio14; Supit, Iwan15; Vanuytrecht, Eline12; Wolf, Joost16; Woli, Prem17 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Peru; Kuwait; Italy; South Africa; India; Kenya; Germany; Denmark; Belgium; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)-and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low-vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per degrees C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach. |
英文关键词 | climate change crop modeling model improvement solanum tuberosum uncertainty analysis yield sensitivity |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396829300024 |
WOS关键词 | SOLANUM-TUBEROSUM L. ; ELEVATED CARBON-DIOXIDE ; WATER-USE EFFICIENCY ; GAS-EXCHANGE ; SIMULATING IMPACTS ; ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; YIELD RESPONSE ; CROP MODEL ; GROWTH ; TEMPERATURE |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17125 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.ARS, Crop Syst & Global Change Lab, USDA, Beltsville, MD 20705 USA; 2.Int Potato Ctr, Prod Syst & Environm, Lima, Peru; 3.Kuwait Inst Sci Res, Desert Agr & Ecosyst Program, Safat, Kuwait; 4.Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL USA; 5.Univ Florence, Dept Agrifood Prod & Environm Sci, Florence, Italy; 6.Univ Free State, Soil Crop & Climate Sci, Bloemfontein, South Africa; 7.Cent Potato Res Inst, Shimla, India; 8.Int Potato Ctr SSA, Prod Syst & Environm, Nairobi, Kenya; 9.Indian Agr Res Inst, Ctr Environm Sci & Climate Resilient Agr, New Delhi, India; 10.Inst Landscape Syst Anal, Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res, Muncheberg, Germany; 11.Aarhus Univ, Dept Agroecol, Tjele, Denmark; 12.KU Leuven Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Leuven, Belgium; 13.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA; 14.Washington State Univ, Biol Syst Engn, Pullman, WA 99164 USA; 15.Wageningen Univ & Res Ctr, Earth Syst Sci & Climate Adapt Land Management, Wageningen, Netherlands; 16.Wageningen Univ & Res Ctr, Plant Prod Syst, Wageningen, Netherlands; 17.Washington State Univ, AgWeatherNet Program, Pullman, WA 99164 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fleisher, David H.,Condori, Bruno,Quiroz, Roberto,et al. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(3). |
APA | Fleisher, David H..,Condori, Bruno.,Quiroz, Roberto.,Alva, Ashok.,Asseng, Senthold.,...&Woli, Prem.(2017).A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(3). |
MLA | Fleisher, David H.,et al."A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.3(2017). |
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