GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1111/gcb.13411
A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels
Fleisher, David H.1; Condori, Bruno1; Quiroz, Roberto2; Alva, Ashok3; Asseng, Senthold4; Barreda, Carolina2; Bindi, Marco5; Boote, Kenneth J.4; Ferrise, Roberto5; Franke, Angelinus C.6; Govindakrishnan, Panamanna M.7; Harahagazwe, Dieudonne8; Hoogenboom, Gerrit4; Kumar, Soora Naresh9; Merante, Paolo5; Nendel, Claas10; Olesen, Jorgen E.11; Parker, Phillip S.10; Raes, Dirk12; Raymundo, Rubi4; Ruane, Alex C.13; Stockle, Claudio14; Supit, Iwan15; Vanuytrecht, Eline12; Wolf, Joost16; Woli, Prem17
2017-03-01
发表期刊GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
ISSN1354-1013
EISSN1365-2486
出版年2017
卷号23期号:3
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; Peru; Kuwait; Italy; South Africa; India; Kenya; Germany; Denmark; Belgium; Netherlands
英文摘要

A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)-and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low-vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per degrees C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach.


英文关键词climate change crop modeling model improvement solanum tuberosum uncertainty analysis yield sensitivity
领域气候变化 ; 资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000396829300024
WOS关键词SOLANUM-TUBEROSUM L. ; ELEVATED CARBON-DIOXIDE ; WATER-USE EFFICIENCY ; GAS-EXCHANGE ; SIMULATING IMPACTS ; ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; YIELD RESPONSE ; CROP MODEL ; GROWTH ; TEMPERATURE
WOS类目Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/17125
专题气候变化
资源环境科学
作者单位1.ARS, Crop Syst & Global Change Lab, USDA, Beltsville, MD 20705 USA;
2.Int Potato Ctr, Prod Syst & Environm, Lima, Peru;
3.Kuwait Inst Sci Res, Desert Agr & Ecosyst Program, Safat, Kuwait;
4.Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL USA;
5.Univ Florence, Dept Agrifood Prod & Environm Sci, Florence, Italy;
6.Univ Free State, Soil Crop & Climate Sci, Bloemfontein, South Africa;
7.Cent Potato Res Inst, Shimla, India;
8.Int Potato Ctr SSA, Prod Syst & Environm, Nairobi, Kenya;
9.Indian Agr Res Inst, Ctr Environm Sci & Climate Resilient Agr, New Delhi, India;
10.Inst Landscape Syst Anal, Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res, Muncheberg, Germany;
11.Aarhus Univ, Dept Agroecol, Tjele, Denmark;
12.KU Leuven Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Leuven, Belgium;
13.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA;
14.Washington State Univ, Biol Syst Engn, Pullman, WA 99164 USA;
15.Wageningen Univ & Res Ctr, Earth Syst Sci & Climate Adapt Land Management, Wageningen, Netherlands;
16.Wageningen Univ & Res Ctr, Plant Prod Syst, Wageningen, Netherlands;
17.Washington State Univ, AgWeatherNet Program, Pullman, WA 99164 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Fleisher, David H.,Condori, Bruno,Quiroz, Roberto,et al. A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(3).
APA Fleisher, David H..,Condori, Bruno.,Quiroz, Roberto.,Alva, Ashok.,Asseng, Senthold.,...&Woli, Prem.(2017).A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(3).
MLA Fleisher, David H.,et al."A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.3(2017).
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