Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13429 |
Tracking lags in historical plant species' shifts in relation to regional climate change | |
Ash, Jeremy D.; Givnish, Thomas J.; Waller, Donald M. | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Can species shift their distributions fast enough to track changes in climate? We used abundance data from the 1950s and the 2000s in Wisconsin to measure shifts in the distribution and abundance of 78 forest-understory plant species over the last half-century and compare these shifts to changes in climate. We estimated temporal shifts in the geographic distribution of each species using vectors to connect abundance-weighted centroids from the 1950s and 2000s. These shifts in distribution reflect colonization, extirpation, and changes in abundance within sites, separately quantified here. We then applied climate analog analyses to compute vectors representing the climate change that each species experienced. Species shifted mostly to the northwest (mean: 49 +/- 29 km) primarily reflecting processes of colonization and changes in local abundance. Analog climates for these species shifted even further to the northwest, however, exceeding species' shifts by an average of 90 +/- 40 km. Most species thus failed to match recent rates of climate change. These lags decline in species that have colonized more sites and those with broader site occupancy, larger seed mass, and higher habitat fidelity. Thus, species' traits appear to affect their responses to climate change, but relationships are weak. As climate change accelerates, these lags will likely increase, potentially threatening the persistence of species lacking the capacity to disperse to new sites or locally adapt. However, species with greater lags have not yet declined more in abundance. The extent of these threats will likely depend on how other drivers of ecological change and interactions among species affect their responses to climate change. |
英文关键词 | climate analog forest understory functional traits geographic centroid migratory lag |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396829300027 |
WOS关键词 | FUNCTIONAL TRAITS ; RANGE SHIFTS ; FOREST UNDERSTORIES ; LIFE-HISTORY ; WISCONSIN ; PATTERNS ; PREDICT ; COMMUNITIES ; ABUNDANCE ; RESPONSES |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16995 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Univ Wisconsin Madison, Dept Bot, Madison, WI 53706 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ash, Jeremy D.,Givnish, Thomas J.,Waller, Donald M.. Tracking lags in historical plant species' shifts in relation to regional climate change[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(3). |
APA | Ash, Jeremy D.,Givnish, Thomas J.,&Waller, Donald M..(2017).Tracking lags in historical plant species' shifts in relation to regional climate change.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(3). |
MLA | Ash, Jeremy D.,et al."Tracking lags in historical plant species' shifts in relation to regional climate change".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.3(2017). |
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