Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13454 |
Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates | |
Mathewson, Paul D.1; Moyer-Horner, Lucas1,2; Beever, Erik A.3,4; Briscoe, Natalie J.5; Kearney, Michael5; Yahn, Jeremiah M.1; Porter, Warren P.1 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
![]() |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Australia |
英文摘要 | How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika- specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of similar to 3-5 degrees C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans. |
英文关键词 | activity American pika biophysical model climate change mechanistic model Ochotona princeps physiology species distribution model temperature |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396829300009 |
WOS关键词 | SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; OCHOTONA-PRINCEPS ; BEHAVIORAL THERMOREGULATION ; SELECTING THRESHOLDS ; GREAT-BASIN ; CONSERVATION ; IMPACTS ; POPULATION ; BIODIVERSITY ; BIOGEOGRAPHY |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16994 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Wisconsin Madison, Dept Zool, Madison, WI 53703 USA; 2.Univ Utah, Dept Biol, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 USA; 3.US Geol Survey, Northern Rocky Mt Sci Ctr, Bozeman, MT 59715 USA; 4.Montana State Univ, Dept Ecol, Bozeman, MT 59715 USA; 5.Univ Melbourne, Sch BioSci, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mathewson, Paul D.,Moyer-Horner, Lucas,Beever, Erik A.,et al. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(3). |
APA | Mathewson, Paul D..,Moyer-Horner, Lucas.,Beever, Erik A..,Briscoe, Natalie J..,Kearney, Michael.,...&Porter, Warren P..(2017).Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(3). |
MLA | Mathewson, Paul D.,et al."Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.3(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论