GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1111/gcb.13454
Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates
Mathewson, Paul D.1; Moyer-Horner, Lucas1,2; Beever, Erik A.3,4; Briscoe, Natalie J.5; Kearney, Michael5; Yahn, Jeremiah M.1; Porter, Warren P.1
2017-03-01
发表期刊GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
ISSN1354-1013
EISSN1365-2486
出版年2017
卷号23期号:3
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; Australia
英文摘要

How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika- specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of similar to 3-5 degrees C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans.


英文关键词activity American pika biophysical model climate change mechanistic model Ochotona princeps physiology species distribution model temperature
领域气候变化 ; 资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000396829300009
WOS关键词SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; OCHOTONA-PRINCEPS ; BEHAVIORAL THERMOREGULATION ; SELECTING THRESHOLDS ; GREAT-BASIN ; CONSERVATION ; IMPACTS ; POPULATION ; BIODIVERSITY ; BIOGEOGRAPHY
WOS类目Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16994
专题气候变化
资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Wisconsin Madison, Dept Zool, Madison, WI 53703 USA;
2.Univ Utah, Dept Biol, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 USA;
3.US Geol Survey, Northern Rocky Mt Sci Ctr, Bozeman, MT 59715 USA;
4.Montana State Univ, Dept Ecol, Bozeman, MT 59715 USA;
5.Univ Melbourne, Sch BioSci, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Mathewson, Paul D.,Moyer-Horner, Lucas,Beever, Erik A.,et al. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(3).
APA Mathewson, Paul D..,Moyer-Horner, Lucas.,Beever, Erik A..,Briscoe, Natalie J..,Kearney, Michael.,...&Porter, Warren P..(2017).Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(3).
MLA Mathewson, Paul D.,et al."Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.3(2017).
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Mathewson, Paul D.]的文章
[Moyer-Horner, Lucas]的文章
[Beever, Erik A.]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Mathewson, Paul D.]的文章
[Moyer-Horner, Lucas]的文章
[Beever, Erik A.]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Mathewson, Paul D.]的文章
[Moyer-Horner, Lucas]的文章
[Beever, Erik A.]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。