Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13530 |
Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures | |
Asseng, Senthold1; Cammarano, Davide1,7; Basso, Bruno2,3; Chung, Uran4,8; Alderman, Phillip D.4,9; Sonder, Kai4; Reynolds, Matthew4; Lobell, David B.5,6 | |
2017-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Mexico; Scotland; South Korea |
英文摘要 | Many of the irrigated spring wheat regions in the world are also regions with high poverty. The impacts of temperature increase on wheat yield in regions of high poverty are uncertain. A grain yield-temperature response function combined with a quantification of model uncertainty was constructed using a multimodel ensemble from two key irrigated spring wheat areas (India and Sudan) and applied to all irrigated spring wheat regions in the world. Southern Indian and southern Pakistani wheat-growing regions with large yield reductions from increasing temperatures coincided with high poverty headcounts, indicating these areas as future food security 'hot spots'. The multimodel simulations produced a linear absolute decline of yields with increasing temperature, with uncertainty varying with reference temperature at a location. As a consequence of the linear absolute yield decline, the relative yield reductions are larger in low-yielding environments (e.g., high reference temperature areas in southern India, southern Pakistan and all Sudan wheat-growing regions) and farmers in these regions will be hit hardest by increasing temperatures. However, as absolute yield declines are about the same in low-and high-yielding regions, the contributed deficit to national production caused by increasing temperatures is higher in high-yielding environments (e.g., northern India) because these environments contribute more to national wheat production. Although Sudan could potentially grow more wheat if irrigation is available, grain yields would be low due to high reference temperatures, with future increases in temperature further limiting production. |
英文关键词 | food security irrigated spring wheat poverty temperature increase yield impact |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400445900028 |
WOS关键词 | SPRING WHEAT ; GROWTH ; MODEL ; MANAGEMENT ; TOLERANCE ; IMPACTS ; AFRICA ; SCHEME |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16990 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; 2.Michigan State Univ, Dept Geol Sci, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA; 3.Michigan State Univ, WK Kellogg Biol Stn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA; 4.Int Maize & Wheat Improvement Ctr CIMMYT, Apdo Postal 6-641, Mexico City 06600, DF, Mexico; 5.Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; 6.Stanford Univ, Ctr Food Secur & Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; 7.James Hutton Inst, Dundee DD25DA, Scotland; 8.APEC Climate Ctr, 12,Centum 7-Ro, Busan 48058, South Korea; 9.Oklahoma State Univ, Dept Plant & Soil Sci, 371 Agr Hall, Stillwater, OK 74078 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Asseng, Senthold,Cammarano, Davide,Basso, Bruno,et al. Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(6). |
APA | Asseng, Senthold.,Cammarano, Davide.,Basso, Bruno.,Chung, Uran.,Alderman, Phillip D..,...&Lobell, David B..(2017).Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(6). |
MLA | Asseng, Senthold,et al."Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.6(2017). |
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