Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14047 |
Global environmental costs of China's thirst for milk | |
Bai, Zhaohai1,2; Lee, Michael R. F.3,4; Ma, Lin1; Ledgard, Stewart5; Oenema, Oene2,6; Velthof, Gerard L.6; Ma, Wenqi7; Guo, Mengchu8; Zhao, Zhanqing1; Wei, Sha8; Li, Shengli9; Liu, Xia10; Havlik, Petr11; Luo, Jiafa5; Hu, Chunsheng1; Zhang, Fusuo8 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:5页码:2198-2211 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Netherlands; England; New Zealand; Austria |
英文摘要 | China has an ever-increasing thirst for milk, with a predicted 3.2-fold increase in demand by 2050 compared to the production level in 2010. What are the environmental implications of meeting this demand, and what is the preferred pathway? We addressed these questions by using a nexus approach, to examine the interdependencies of increasing milk consumption in China by 2050 and its global impacts, under different scenarios of domestic milk production and importation. Meeting China's milk demand in a business as usual scenario will increase global dairy-related (China and the leading milk exporting regions) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 35% (from 565 to 764Tg CO2eq) and land use for dairy feed production by 32% (from 84 to 111 million ha) compared to 2010, while reactive nitrogen losses from the dairy sector will increase by 48% (from 3.6 to 5.4Tg nitrogen). Producing all additional milk in China with current technology will greatly increase animal feed import; from 1.9 to 8.5Tg for concentrates and from 1.0 to 6.2Tg for forage (alfalfa). In addition, it will increase domestic dairy related GHG emissions by 2.2 times compared to 2010 levels. Importing the extra milk will transfer the environmental burden from China to milk exporting countries; current dairy exporting countries may be unable to produce all additional milk due to physical limitations or environmental preferences/legislation. For example, the farmland area for cattle-feed production in New Zealand would have to increase by more than 57% (1.3 million ha) and that in Europe by more than 39% (15 million ha), while GHG emissions and nitrogen losses would increase roughly proportionally with the increase of farmland in both regions. We propose that a more sustainable dairy future will rely on high milk demanding regions (such as China) improving their domestic milk and feed production efficiencies up to the level of leading milk producing countries. This will decrease the global dairy related GHG emissions and land use by 12% (90Tg CO2eq reduction) and 30% (34 million ha land reduction) compared to the business as usual scenario, respectively. However, this still represents an increase in total GHG emissions of 19% whereas land use will decrease by 8% when compared with 2010 levels, respectively. |
英文关键词 | cattle feed greenhouse gas land use nitrogen losses milk trade shared socio-economic pathways scenarios |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428879800029 |
WOS关键词 | GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ; NEW-ZEALAND ; INTERNATIONAL-TRADE ; NITROGEN-EXCRETION ; DAIRY PRODUCTION ; PHOSPHORUS USE ; USE EFFICIENCY ; FOOD TRADE ; LIVESTOCK ; FEED |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16971 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Agr Water Resources, Ctr Agr Resources Res, Inst Genet & Dev Biol, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China; 2.Wageningen Univ, Dept Soil Qual, Wageningen, Netherlands; 3.Sustainable Agr Sci, Rothamsted Res, North Wyke, England; 4.Univ Bristol, Sch Vet Sci, Langford, England; 5.AgResearch, Ruakura Res Ctr, Hamilton, New Zealand; 6.Wageningen Environm Res, Wageningen, Netherlands; 7.Agr Univ Hebei, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Baoding, Peoples R China; 8.China Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 9.China Agr Univ, State Key Lab Anim Nutr, Coll Anim Sci & Technol, Beijing, Peoples R China; 10.Hebei GEO Univ, Sch Math & Sci, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Peoples R China; 11.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Ecosyst Serv & Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bai, Zhaohai,Lee, Michael R. F.,Ma, Lin,et al. Global environmental costs of China's thirst for milk[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(5):2198-2211. |
APA | Bai, Zhaohai.,Lee, Michael R. F..,Ma, Lin.,Ledgard, Stewart.,Oenema, Oene.,...&Zhang, Fusuo.(2018).Global environmental costs of China's thirst for milk.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(5),2198-2211. |
MLA | Bai, Zhaohai,et al."Global environmental costs of China's thirst for milk".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.5(2018):2198-2211. |
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