Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13585 |
Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change | |
Rogers, Brendan M.1; Jantz, Patrick1,2; Goetz, Scott J.1,2 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 23期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of tree species because of critical environmental tolerances related to growth, mortality, reproduction, disturbances, and biotic interactions. How this is realized in 21st century remains uncertain, in large part due to limitations on plant migration and the impacts of landscape fragmentation. Understanding these changes is of particular concern for forest management, which requires information at an appropriately fine spatial resolution. Here we provide a framework and application for tree species vulnerability to climate change in the eastern United States that accounts for influential drivers of future distributions. We used species distribution models to project changes in habitat suitability at 800 m for 40 tree species that vary in physiology, range, and environmental niche. We then developed layers of adaptive capacity based on migration potential, forest fragmentation, and propagule pressure. These were combined into metrics of vulnerability, including an overall index and spatially explicit categories designed to inform management. Despite overall favorable changes in suitability, the majority of species and the landscape were considered vulnerable to climate change. Vulnerability was significantly exacerbated by projections of pests and pathogens for some species. Northern and high-elevation species tended to be the most vulnerable. There were, however, some notable areas of particular resilience, including most of West Virginia. Our approach combines some of the most important considerations for species vulnerability in a straightforward framework, and can be used as a tool for managers to prioritize species, areas, and actions. |
英文关键词 | biodiversity dispersal distribution model forecast fragmentation management migration pests and pathogens |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000404863300029 |
WOS关键词 | PLANT MIGRATION RATES ; RANGE SHIFTS ; HABITAT FRAGMENTATION ; UNITED-STATES ; NORTH-AMERICA ; DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; VEGETATION RESPONSE ; FOREST INVENTORY ; MOUNTAIN PLANTS ; CHANGE IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16949 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Woods Hole Res Ctr, 149 Woods Hole Rd, Falmouth, MA USA; 2.No Arizona Univ, Sch Informat Comp & Cyber Syst, 1295 South Knoles Dr, Flagstaff, AZ USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rogers, Brendan M.,Jantz, Patrick,Goetz, Scott J.. Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2017,23(8). |
APA | Rogers, Brendan M.,Jantz, Patrick,&Goetz, Scott J..(2017).Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23(8). |
MLA | Rogers, Brendan M.,et al."Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 23.8(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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