Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13967 |
Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes | |
van Oort, Pepijn A. J.1,2; Zwart, Sander J.1,3 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
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ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:3页码:1029-1045 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Cote Ivoire; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (-24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by -21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by -45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (-15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates. |
英文关键词 | Africa climate change cold induced sterility heat induced sterility irrigated photosynthesis rainfed rice |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425396700015 |
WOS关键词 | SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ; CHANGE ADAPTATION ; INDUCED STERILITY ; CROPPING SYSTEMS ; HEAT-STRESS ; WIDE-RANGE ; MODEL ; WATER ; TIME ; UNCERTAINTIES |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16939 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Africa Rice Ctr, Bouake, Cote Ivoire; 2.Wageningen Univ, Ctr Crop Syst Anal, Wageningen, Netherlands; 3.Univ Twente, Fac Geoinformat Wetenschappen Aardobser, Enschede, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van Oort, Pepijn A. J.,Zwart, Sander J.. Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(3):1029-1045. |
APA | van Oort, Pepijn A. J.,&Zwart, Sander J..(2018).Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(3),1029-1045. |
MLA | van Oort, Pepijn A. J.,et al."Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.3(2018):1029-1045. |
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