Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14468 |
Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change | |
Kwiatkowski, Lester1,2; Aumont, Olivier3; Bopp, Laurent1 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 25期号:1页码:218-229 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France |
英文摘要 | The impact of climate change on the marine food web is highly uncertain. Nonetheless, there is growing consensus that global marine primary production will decline in response to future climate change, largely due to increased stratification reducing the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean. Evidence to date suggests a potential amplification of this response throughout the trophic food web, with more dramatic responses at higher trophic levels. Here we show that trophic amplification of marine biomass declines is a consistent feature of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models, across different scenarios of future climate change. Under the business-as-usual Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) global mean phytoplankton biomass is projected to decline by 6.1% +/- 2.5% over the twenty-first century, while zooplankton biomass declines by 13.6% +/- 3.0%. All models project greater relative declines in zooplankton than phytoplankton, with annual zooplankton biomass anomalies 2.24 +/- 1.03 times those of phytoplankton. The low latitude oceans drive the projected trophic amplification of biomass declines, with models exhibiting variable trophic interactions in the mid-to-high latitudes and similar relative changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Under the assumption that zooplankton biomass is prey limited, an analytical explanation of the trophic amplification that occurs in the low latitudes can be derived from generic plankton differential equations. Using an ocean biogeochemical model, we show that the inclusion of variable C:N:P phytoplankton stoichiometry can substantially increase the trophic amplification of biomass declines in low latitude regions. This additional trophic amplification is driven by enhanced nutrient limitation decreasing phytoplankton N and P content relative to C, hence reducing zooplankton growth efficiency. Given that most current Earth System Models assume that phytoplankton C:N:P stoichiometry is constant, such models are likely to underestimate the extent of negative trophic amplification under projected climate change. |
英文关键词 | climate change food quality marine primary production plankton stoichiometry trophic amplification |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000453370700018 |
WOS关键词 | 21ST-CENTURY PROJECTIONS ; MODEL DESCRIPTION ; FISH PRODUCTION ; OCEAN ; CARBON ; LIGHT ; UNCERTAINTIES ; PRODUCTIVITY ; CONSTRAINTS ; ECOSYSTEMS |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16928 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Sorbonne Univ, Ecole Polytech, PSL Res Univ, LMD,IPSL,Ecole Normale Super,CNRS, Paris 05, France; 2.UVSQ, LSCE, IPSL, CEA,CNRS, Gif Sur Yvette, France; 3.UPMC, LOCEAN, IPSL, CNRS,IRD,MNHN, Paris, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kwiatkowski, Lester,Aumont, Olivier,Bopp, Laurent. Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2019,25(1):218-229. |
APA | Kwiatkowski, Lester,Aumont, Olivier,&Bopp, Laurent.(2019).Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,25(1),218-229. |
MLA | Kwiatkowski, Lester,et al."Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 25.1(2019):218-229. |
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