GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1111/gcb.13995
Climate change impacts on selected global rangeland ecosystem services
Boone, Randall B.1,2; Conant, Richard T.1,2; Sircely, Jason3; Thornton, Philip K.3; Herrero, Mario4
2018-03-01
发表期刊GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
ISSN1354-1013
EISSN1365-2486
出版年2018
卷号24期号:3页码:1382-1393
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; Kenya; Australia
英文摘要

Rangelands are Earth's dominant land cover and are important providers of ecosystem services. Reliance on rangelands is projected to grow, thus understanding the sensitivity of rangelands to future climates is essential. We used a new ecosystem model of moderate complexity that allows, for the first time, to quantify global changes expected in rangelands under future climates. The mean global annual net primary production (NPP) may decline by 10 g C m(-2) year(-1) in 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, but herbaceous NPP is projected to increase slightly (i.e., average of 3 g C m(-2) year(-1)). Responses vary substantially from place-to-place, with large increases in annual productivity projected in northern regions (e.g., a 21% increase in productivity in the US and Canada) and large declines in western Africa (-46% in sub-Saharan western Africa) and Australia (-17%). Soil organic carbon is projected to increase in Australia (9%), the Middle East (14%), and central Asia (16%) and decline in many African savannas (e.g., -18% in sub-Saharan western Africa). Livestock are projected to decline 7.5 to 9.6%, an economic loss of from $9.7 to $12.6 billion. Our results suggest that forage production in Africa is sensitive to changes in climate, which will have substantial impacts on the livelihoods of the more than 180 million people who raise livestock on those rangelands. Our approach and the simulation tool presented here offer considerable potential for forecasting future conditions, highlight regions of concern, and support analyses where costs and benefits of adaptations and policies may be quantified. Otherwise, the technical options and policy and enabling environment that are needed to facilitate widespread adaptation may be very difficult to elucidate.


英文关键词annual net primary production forage biomass global rangeland simulator G-Range livestock plant cover change plant functional groups
领域气候变化 ; 资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000425396700041
WOS关键词LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION ; LAND-COVER ; MODEL ; VEGETATION ; DYNAMICS ; CARBON ; SIMULATIONS ; SATELLITE ; RESPONSES ; DATABASE
WOS类目Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16764
专题气候变化
资源环境科学
作者单位1.Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA;
2.Colorado State Univ, Dept Ecosyst Sci & Sustainabil, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA;
3.Int Livestock Res Inst, CGIAR Res Program Climate Change Agr & Food Secur, Nairobi, Kenya;
4.CSIRO, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Boone, Randall B.,Conant, Richard T.,Sircely, Jason,et al. Climate change impacts on selected global rangeland ecosystem services[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(3):1382-1393.
APA Boone, Randall B.,Conant, Richard T.,Sircely, Jason,Thornton, Philip K.,&Herrero, Mario.(2018).Climate change impacts on selected global rangeland ecosystem services.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(3),1382-1393.
MLA Boone, Randall B.,et al."Climate change impacts on selected global rangeland ecosystem services".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.3(2018):1382-1393.
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