Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13818 |
Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic | |
Assis, Jorge1; Araujo, Miguel B.2,3,4; Serrao, Ester A.1 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:1页码:E55-E66 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Portugal; Spain; Denmark |
英文摘要 | Intraspecific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp forests that persisted over glacial-interglacial cycles. We use ecological niche modelling to predict genetic diversity hotspots for eight species of large brown algae with different thermal tolerances (Arctic to warm temperate), estimated as regions of persistence throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 YBP), the warmer Mid-Holocene (6,000 YBP), and the present. Changes in the genetic diversity within ancient refugia were projected for the future (year 2100) under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Models predicted distributions that matched empirical distributions in cross-validation, and identified distinct refugia at the low latitude ranges, which largely coincide among species with similar ecological niches. Transferred models into the future projected polewards expansions and substantial range losses in lower latitudes, where richer gene pools are expected (in Nova Scotia and Iberia for cold affinity species and Gibraltar, Alboran, and Morocco for warm-temperate species). These effects were projected for both scenarios but were intensified under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, with the complete borealization (circum-Arctic colonization) of kelp forests, the redistribution of the biogeographical transitional zones of the North Atlantic, and the erosion of global gene pools across all species. As the geographic distribution of genetic variability is unknown for most marine species, our results represent a baseline for identification of locations potentially rich in unique phylogeographic lineages that are also climatic relics in threat of disappearing. |
英文关键词 | climate change climatic refugia ecological niche modelling genetic diversity kelp forests North Atlantic range shifts |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426506100005 |
WOS关键词 | SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; EDGE GENETIC DIVERSITY ; LAMINARIA-HYPERBOREA ; GLACIAL REFUGIA ; RANGE-EDGE ; SACCORHIZA-POLYSCHIDES ; FISH COMMUNITIES ; MARINE FORESTS ; CORAL-REEFS ; REAR EDGE |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16682 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Algarve, CCMAR CIMAR, Ctr Marine Sci, Faro, Portugal; 2.CSIC, Natl Museum Nat Sci, Madrid, Spain; 3.Univ Evora, InBio CIBIO, Evora, Portugal; 4.Univ Copenhagen, Ctr Macroecol Evolut & Climate, Nat Hist Museum Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Assis, Jorge,Araujo, Miguel B.,Serrao, Ester A.. Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(1):E55-E66. |
APA | Assis, Jorge,Araujo, Miguel B.,&Serrao, Ester A..(2018).Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(1),E55-E66. |
MLA | Assis, Jorge,et al."Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.1(2018):E55-E66. |
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