Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13925 |
How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions? | |
Dyderski, Marcin K.1,2; Paz, Sonia3; Frelich, Lee E.4; Jagodzinski, Andrzej M.1,2 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:3页码:1150-1163 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Poland; USA |
英文摘要 | Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios-optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)-using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: "winners"-mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercuspetraea; "losers"-mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species-Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercusrubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as "winners." Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation. |
英文关键词 | climate change disturbance extinction forest management forest policy habitat suitability species distribution model |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425396700024 |
WOS关键词 | COMMON GARDEN ; ENVELOPE MODELS ; POTENTIAL RANGE ; INVASIVE TREE ; ABIES-ALBA ; CONSEQUENCES ; IMPACTS ; HABITAT ; UNCERTAINTIES ; POPULATIONS |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16680 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Polish Acad Sci, Inst Dendrol, Kornik, Poland; 2.Poznan Univ Life Sci, Dept Game Management & Forest Protect, Fac Forestry, Poznan, Poland; 3.Poznan Univ Life Sci, Fac Forestry, Poznan, Poland; 4.Univ Minnesota, Dept Forest Resources, Ctr Forest Ecol, St Paul, MN USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dyderski, Marcin K.,Paz, Sonia,Frelich, Lee E.,et al. How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(3):1150-1163. |
APA | Dyderski, Marcin K.,Paz, Sonia,Frelich, Lee E.,&Jagodzinski, Andrzej M..(2018).How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(3),1150-1163. |
MLA | Dyderski, Marcin K.,et al."How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions?".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.3(2018):1150-1163. |
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