Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14039 |
Historical and event-based bioclimatic suitability predicts regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation | |
Lloret, Francisco1,2; Kitzberger, Thomas3 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
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ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:5页码:1952-1964 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Spain; Argentina |
英文摘要 | Vulnerability to climate change, and particularly to climate extreme events, is expected to vary across species ranges. Thus, we need tools to standardize the variability in regional climatic legacy and extreme climate across populations and species. Extreme climate events (e.g., droughts) can erode populations close to the limits of species' climatic tolerance. Populations in climatic-core locations may also become vulnerable because they have developed a greater demand for resources (i.e., water) that cannot be enough satisfied during the periods of scarcity. These mechanisms can become exacerbated in tree populations when combined with antagonistic biotic interactions, such as insect infestation. We used climatic suitability indices derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to standardize the climatic conditions experienced across Pinus edulis populations in southwestern North America, during a historical period (1972-2000) and during an extreme event (2001-2007), when the compound effect of hot drought and bark beetle infestation caused widespread die-off and mortality. Pinus edulis climatic suitability diminished dramatically during the die-off period, with remarkable variation between years. P. edulis die-off occurred mainly not just in sites that experienced lower climatic suitability during the drought but also where climatic suitability was higher during the historical period. The combined effect of historically high climatic suitability and a marked decrease in the climatic suitability during the drought best explained the range-wide mortality. Lagged effects of climatic suitability loss in previous years and co-occurrence of Juniperus monosperma also explained P. edulis die-off in particular years. Overall, the study shows that past climatic legacy, likely determining acclimation, together with competitive interactions plays a major role in responses to extreme drought. It also provides a new approach to standardize the magnitude of climatic variability across populations using SDMs, improving our capacity to predict population's or species' vulnerability to climatic change. |
英文关键词 | climate change climatic niche core vs edge populations correlative niche models drought-induced die-off extreme climatic events forest dieback tree mortality |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428879800011 |
WOS关键词 | PINYON-JUNIPER WOODLANDS ; INDUCED TREE MORTALITY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; UNITED-STATES ; DIE-OFF ; BRITISH-COLUMBIA ; RANGE BOUNDARIES ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; PINUS-EDULIS |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16573 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.CREAF Cerdanyola Valles, Bellaterra, Spain; 2.Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Cerdanyola Del Valles, Spain; 3.Univ Nacl Comahue, CONICET, INIBIOMA, Lab Ecotono, San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lloret, Francisco,Kitzberger, Thomas. Historical and event-based bioclimatic suitability predicts regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(5):1952-1964. |
APA | Lloret, Francisco,&Kitzberger, Thomas.(2018).Historical and event-based bioclimatic suitability predicts regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(5),1952-1964. |
MLA | Lloret, Francisco,et al."Historical and event-based bioclimatic suitability predicts regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.5(2018):1952-1964. |
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