Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13959 |
Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes | |
Tito, Richard1,2; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L.1; Feeley, Kenneth J.3,4 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 24期号:2页码:E592-E602 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Brazil; Peru; USA |
英文摘要 | One of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3 degrees C and 2.6 degrees C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%-29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 US$ ha(-1) yr(-1). These findings reveal that climate change is a real and imminent threat to agriculture and that there is a pressing need to develop effective management strategies to reduce yield losses and prevent food insecurity. Importantly, such strategies should take into account the influences of non-climatic and/or biotic factors (e.g., novel pests) on plant development. |
英文关键词 | agricultural production future climatic scenarios global warming herbivores maize novel interactions Peru potato small-scale agriculture |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423994700018 |
WOS关键词 | CHANGE ADAPTATION ; TEMPERATURE ; MAIZE ; RESPONSES ; HERBIVORY ; SECURITY ; TRENDS ; SHIFTS ; PESTS |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16495 |
专题 | 气候变化 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Fed Uberlandia, Inst Biol, Uberlandia, MG, Brazil; 2.Univ Nacl San Antonio Abad Cusco, Escuela Profes Biol, Herbario Vargaz CUZ, Cuzco, Peru; 3.Univ Miami, Dept Biol, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA; 4.Fairchild Trop Bot Garden, Coral Gables, FL USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tito, Richard,Vasconcelos, Heraldo L.,Feeley, Kenneth J.. Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(2):E592-E602. |
APA | Tito, Richard,Vasconcelos, Heraldo L.,&Feeley, Kenneth J..(2018).Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(2),E592-E602. |
MLA | Tito, Richard,et al."Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.2(2018):E592-E602. |
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