Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-18-103-2018 |
Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O-3 and PM2.5 over India | |
Pommier, Matthieu1; Fagerli, Hilde1; Gauss, Michael1; Simpson, David1,2; Sharma, Sumit3; Sinha, Vinay4; Ghude, Sachin D.5; Landgren, Oskar1; Nyiri, Agnes1; Wind, Peter1 | |
2018-01-04 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS |
ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 18期号:1页码:103-127 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Norway; Sweden; India |
英文摘要 | Eleven of the world's 20 most polluted cities are located in India and poor air quality is already a major public health issue. However, anthropogenic emissions are predicted to increase substantially in the short-term (2030) and medium-term (2050) futures in India, especially if no further policy efforts are made. In this study, the EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model has been used to predict changes in surface ozone (O-3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for India in a world of changing emissions and climate. The reference scenario (for present-day) is evaluated against surface-based measurements, mainly at urban stations. The evaluation has also been extended to other data sets which are publicly available on the web but without quality assurance. The evaluation shows high temporal correlation for O-3 (r = 0.9) and high spatial correlation for PM2.5 (r = 0.5 and r = 0.8 depending on the data set) between the model results and observations. While the overall bias in PM2.5 is small (lower than 6 %), the model overestimates O-3 by 35 %. The underestimation in NOx titration is probably the main reason for the O-3 overestimation in the model. However, the level of agreement can be considered satisfactory in this case of a regional model being evaluated against mainly urban measurements, and given the inevitable uncertainties in much of the input data. For the 2050s, the model predicts that climate change will have distinct effects in India in terms of O-3 pollution, with a region in the north characterized by a statistically significant increase by up to 4% (2 ppb) and one in the south by a decrease up to -3% (-1.4 ppb). This variation in O-3 is assumed to be partly related to changes in O-3 deposition velocity caused by changes in soil moisture and, over a few areas, partly also by changes in biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds. Our calculations suggest that PM2.5 will increase by up to 6.5% over the Indo-Gangetic Plain by the 2050s. The increase over India is driven by increases in dust, particulate organic matter (OM) and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIAs), which are mainly affected by the change in precipitation, biogenic emissions and wind speed. The large increase in anthropogenic emissions has a larger impact than climate change, causing O-3 and PM2.5 levels to increase by 13 and 67% on average in the 2050s over the main part of India, respectively. By the 2030s, secondary inorganic aerosol is predicted to become the second largest contributor to PM2.5 in India, and the largest in the 2050s, exceeding OM and dust. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000419242500002 |
WOS关键词 | GROUND-LEVEL OZONE ; AIR-QUALITY ; TROPOSPHERIC OZONE ; CHEMICAL-COMPOSITION ; PREMATURE MORTALITY ; GLOBAL EMISSIONS ; UNITED-STATES ; MODEL ; DEPOSITION ; EUROPE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/16201 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Oslo, Norway; 2.Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Space Earth & Environm, Gothenburg, Sweden; 3.Energy & Resources Inst TERI, Earth Sci & Climate Change Div, New Delhi, India; 4.TERI Univ, Dept Nat Resources, New Delhi, India; 5.Indian Inst Trop Meteorol, Pune, Maharashtra, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pommier, Matthieu,Fagerli, Hilde,Gauss, Michael,et al. Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O-3 and PM2.5 over India[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2018,18(1):103-127. |
APA | Pommier, Matthieu.,Fagerli, Hilde.,Gauss, Michael.,Simpson, David.,Sharma, Sumit.,...&Wind, Peter.(2018).Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O-3 and PM2.5 over India.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,18(1),103-127. |
MLA | Pommier, Matthieu,et al."Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O-3 and PM2.5 over India".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 18.1(2018):103-127. |
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