资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

This paper deals with fishery management in the face of the ecological and economic effects of global warming. To achieve this, a dynamic bioeconomic model and model-based scenarios are considered, in which the stock's growth function depends on the sea surface temperature. The model is empirically calibrated for the French Guiana shrimp fishery using time series collected over the period 1993-2009. Three fishing effort strategies are then compared under two contrasted IPCC climate scenarios (RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6). A first harvesting strategy maintains the Status Quo in terms of fishing effort. A more ecologically-oriented strategy based on the closure of the fishery is also considered. A third strategy, which relates to Maximum Economic Yield (MEY), is based on the optimisation of the net present value derived from fishing. The results first show that 'Status Quo' fishing intensity combined with global warming leads to the collapse of the fishery in the long run. Secondly, it turns out that the Closure strategy preserves stock viability especially under the optimistic climate scenario. Thirdly, the MEY strategy makes it possible to satisfy bioeconomic performances requirements with positive stock and profit, once again, especially under the optimistic warming scenario. Consequently, MEY emerges as a relevant bioeconomic strategy in terms of adaptation to climate change but only in connection with climate change mitigation.