Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.01.011 |
Do Mature Economies Grow Exponentially? | |
Lange, Steffen1; Puetz, Peter2; Kopp, Thomas3 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
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ISSN | 0921-8009 |
EISSN | 1873-6106 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 147页码:123-133 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | In academic discussions and in public debate, economic growth is commonly presumed to be exponential. Economic theories model growth in an exponential manner and central policy institutions regard growth rates of 2-3% to be normal, also implying growth to be exponential. In this paper we investigate empirically whether economic growth is indeed exponential by estimating autoregressive integrated moving average time series models based on gross domestic product data for 18 mature economies from 1960 to 2013. Our findings cast doubts on whether these commonly discussed economic growth paths reflect the economic reality: only two out of 18 mature countries depict exponential growth rates above these levels. Five have lower exponential growth and the development of eleven countries exhibit rather linear growth. Additionally, we show that prominent theories of economic growth assume growth to be exponential and that a more heterogeneous set of theories is needed to explain different patterns of growth across time and space. |
英文关键词 | Per capita gross domestic product Economic growth Exponential growth Linear growth Time series analysis Post-growth Degrowth Secular stagnation Theories of economic growth |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428008000012 |
WOS关键词 | TIME-SERIES ; UNIT-ROOT ; HYPOTHESIS |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Economics ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Business & Economics |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15675 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Inst Ecol Econ Res, Potsdamer Str 105, D-10785 Berlin, Germany; 2.Univ Goettingen, Ctr Stat, Humboldtallee 3, D-37073 Gottingen, Germany; 3.Univ Goettingen, Agr Market Anal, Pl Gottinger Sieben 5, D-37073 Gottingen, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lange, Steffen,Puetz, Peter,Kopp, Thomas. Do Mature Economies Grow Exponentially?[J]. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,2018,147:123-133. |
APA | Lange, Steffen,Puetz, Peter,&Kopp, Thomas.(2018).Do Mature Economies Grow Exponentially?.ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,147,123-133. |
MLA | Lange, Steffen,et al."Do Mature Economies Grow Exponentially?".ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 147(2018):123-133. |
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