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DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.08.013 |
Reconsidering Monetary Policy: An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Interest Rates and Nominal GDP Growth in the US, UK, Germany and Japan | |
Lee, Kang-Soek1,3; Werner, Richard A.1,2 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
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ISSN | 0921-8009 |
EISSN | 1873-6106 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 146页码:26-34 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; France |
英文摘要 | The rate of interest the price of money is said to be a key policy tool. Economics has in general emphasised prices. This theoretical bias results from the axiomatic-deductive methodology centring on equilibrium. Without equilibrium, quantity constraints are more important than prices in determining market outcomes. In disequilibrium, interest rates should be far less useful as policy variable, and economics should be more concerned with quantities (including resource constraints). To investigate, we test the received belief that lower interest rates result in higher growth and higher rates result in lower growth. Examining the relationship between 3-month and 10-year benchmark rates and nominal GDP growth over half a century in four of the five largest economies we find that interest rates follow GDP growth and are consistently positively correlated with growth. If policy-makers really aimed at setting rates consistent with a recovery, they would need to raise them. We conclude that conventional monetary policy as operated by central banks for the past half-century is fundamentally flawed. Policy-makers had better focus on the quantity variables that cause growth. |
英文关键词 | Interest rates Economic growth Monetary policy Monetary transmission Prices vs. quantities Quantity constraints Resource constraints Quantity theory of credit |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425202700004 |
WOS关键词 | MODELS ; MONEY ; BANKING |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Economics ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Business & Economics |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15650 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Southampton, Southampton Business Sch, Ctr Banking Finance & Sustainable Dev, Southampton, Hants, England; 2.Univ Oxford, Linacre Coll, Oxford, England; 3.Chamber Commerce & Ind Paris IDF, Novancia Business Sch, Paris, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lee, Kang-Soek,Werner, Richard A.. Reconsidering Monetary Policy: An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Interest Rates and Nominal GDP Growth in the US, UK, Germany and Japan[J]. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,2018,146:26-34. |
APA | Lee, Kang-Soek,&Werner, Richard A..(2018).Reconsidering Monetary Policy: An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Interest Rates and Nominal GDP Growth in the US, UK, Germany and Japan.ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,146,26-34. |
MLA | Lee, Kang-Soek,et al."Reconsidering Monetary Policy: An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Interest Rates and Nominal GDP Growth in the US, UK, Germany and Japan".ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 146(2018):26-34. |
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