Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.09.019 |
Modeling the marginal value of rainforest losses: A dynamic value function approach | |
Strand, Jon | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS |
ISSN | 0921-8009 |
EISSN | 1873-6106 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 131 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The economic value of a rainforest is modeled as a dynamic asset subject to fire risk and potential increase in dryness. I solve two Bellman equations, for unburnt and for already burnt forest, to derive analytically tractable expressions for the total expected, spatially differentiated, asset value of the forest in each state assuming constant growth and forest loss rates over time. I derive the marginal expected discounted value loss when losing a small additional piece of forest, at any alternative site in the forest. Marginal forest value is found to increase when the risk of forest fire increases due to forest fragmentation when forest is lost locally; and also when forest dryness, affecting forest values negatively, increases upon forest fragmentation. Both forest fire risk and dryness serve as "multipliers" on the basic services return loss, both within and outside of the forest. Increased forest fire risk is found to reduce average rainforest value by reducing their future expected lifespans and current returns; but to increase marginal forest value by making primary forest loss avoidance more valuable. I calibrate the model including the impact of the forest fire risk component on forest value, with multipliers in a typical range 13-1.5. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V. |
英文关键词 | Rainforests Natural resource valuation Ecosystem services Deforestation |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000388248600029 |
WOS关键词 | ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ENVIRONMENTAL-POLICY ; FIRE REGIMES ; LAND-USE ; AMAZON ; SCALE ; UNCERTAINTY ; ECONOMICS ; MORTALITY |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Economics ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Business & Economics |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15602 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Interamer Dev Bank, 1300 New York Ave, Washington, DC 20577 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Strand, Jon. Modeling the marginal value of rainforest losses: A dynamic value function approach[J]. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,2017,131. |
APA | Strand, Jon.(2017).Modeling the marginal value of rainforest losses: A dynamic value function approach.ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,131. |
MLA | Strand, Jon."Modeling the marginal value of rainforest losses: A dynamic value function approach".ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 131(2017). |
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