Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.10.018 |
Learning from the Ancient Maya: Exploring the Impact of Drought on Population Dynamics | |
Kuil, Linda1; Carr, Gemma1; Prskawetz, Alexia2,3; Salinas, Jose Luis4; Viglione, Alberto4; Bloeschl, Guenter1,4 | |
2019-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
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ISSN | 0921-8009 |
EISSN | 1873-6106 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 157页码:1-16 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Austria |
英文摘要 | Understanding the relationship between drought and population dynamics is increasingly important, particularly in areas where high population growth corresponds with increasing drought risk due to climate change. We examine the relationship between drought events and population dynamics using a stylized hydrology-demography model that has been calibrated to simulate plausible feedbacks for the population decline of the Ancient Maya of Central America. We employ a deterministic and a stochastic approach. We find that the impact of drought increases abruptly once a critical threshold of population density is exceeded. The critical threshold depends on the intensity and duration of the drought as well as on the level of technology adopted by society, the extent of markets and societal behavior. The simulations show that, for a society to be as food secure post-climate change as they are pre-climate change, strategies would have to be adopted to not only increase the region's capacity to provide sufficient resources for its growing population, but also to buffer the impact of a drier climate on productivity. This study provides suggestions on how technological, societal and economic development can modify the system to mitigate the impacts of climate change on the human population. |
英文关键词 | Population-resource model Socio-hydrology Virtual water Drought Vulnerability Climate change |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000456899800001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; EASTER-ISLAND ; RENEWABLE RESOURCES ; WATER SECURITY ; ADAPTATION ; COLLAPSE ; GROWTH ; SUSTAINABILITY ; VULNERABILITY ; EVOLUTION |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Economics ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Business & Economics |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15468 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Vienna Univ Technol, Ctr Water Resource Syst, Karlspl 13-222, A-1040 Vienna, Austria; 2.Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Stat & Math Methods Econ, Vienna, Austria; 3.WU, VID OEAW, IIASA, Wittgenstein Ctr Demog & Global Human Capital, Vienna, Austria; 4.Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, Vienna, Austria |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kuil, Linda,Carr, Gemma,Prskawetz, Alexia,et al. Learning from the Ancient Maya: Exploring the Impact of Drought on Population Dynamics[J]. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,2019,157:1-16. |
APA | Kuil, Linda,Carr, Gemma,Prskawetz, Alexia,Salinas, Jose Luis,Viglione, Alberto,&Bloeschl, Guenter.(2019).Learning from the Ancient Maya: Exploring the Impact of Drought on Population Dynamics.ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS,157,1-16. |
MLA | Kuil, Linda,et al."Learning from the Ancient Maya: Exploring the Impact of Drought on Population Dynamics".ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 157(2019):1-16. |
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