资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

This paper examines the impact of climate change on the bio-economic performance of Bay of Biscay mixed fisheries and explores the capacity of alternative management strategies to cope with these impacts. A dynamic multi-species, multi-class, multi-fleet model is developed and calibrated using available biological, economic and environmental information for French fleets. Fishing and economic data have been collected within the European Data Collection Framework. Climate represented by the sea surface temperature is assumed to affect species recruitment. Three management strategies are compared in terms of bio-economic outcomes: the Status-Quo (SQ), a Multi-species Maximum Sustainable Yield (MMSY) strategy and a Multi-species Maximum Economic Yield (MMEY) strategy. These strategies are ranked with respect to two contrasted scenarios regarding the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) driving climate change. Results show that the SQ strategy is not sustainable and is characterized by a major decline of the key commercial species. By contrast, the MMSY strategy improves the ecological state and economic performance of the fishery. The MMEY strategy yields even greater bio-economic improvements. Bio-economic benefits are however altered by the effects of climate change. Under the MMEY strategy, fleets with more diversified catch structures perform better facing climate change.