Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.3354/cr01447 |
Future impacts of climate change on streamflows across Victoria, Australia: making use of statistical downscaling | |
Fiddes, S.1,2,3; Timbal, B.3 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0936-577X |
EISSN | 1616-1572 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 71期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | Streamflows in key catchments across the State ofVictoria, Australia, are projected into the future utilising a previously developed multiple linear regression. The regression uses a temporal range of rainfall and temperature parameters to compute monthly streamflows, and is applied to an ensemble of 22 statistically downscaled global climate models. This method re produced historical streamflows well: on average the reconstruction overestimated the observed mean by 1% and underestimated the observed variance by 2%, although this varied on a catchment-to-catchment basis. Despite the accurate reconstruction of the mean streamflow, no events of similar magnitude to the most severe drought on record (the Millennium drought, 1997-2009) were found in the historical reconstruction for the current climate. Furthermore the reconstructed streamflow did not exhibit declining trends similar to what has been observed, due to the absence of declining rainfall in the climate model simulations for the historical record. Future projections under a high emissions pathway indicate a large reduction (24-87%) in streamflow by the end of the century, with conditions similar to the Millennium drought becoming the norm. The driest 10 yr mean streamflow was found to be 78% worse than the Millennium drought under a high emissions pathway. The greatest reductions in streamflow are seen through the May-November period. This is an important step in understanding how Victoria's water security will be affected by climate change. |
英文关键词 | Streamflow Rainfall Victoria Australia Water availability Climate change Climate projections Catchment modelling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000396050800003 |
WOS关键词 | CIRCULATION MODEL OUTPUTS ; CMIP5 MODELS ; RAINFALL ; PROJECTIONS ; PRECIPITATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15299 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Melbourne, Australian German Climate & Energy Coll, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia; 2.Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia; 3.Australian Bur Meteorol, 700 Collins St, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fiddes, S.,Timbal, B.. Future impacts of climate change on streamflows across Victoria, Australia: making use of statistical downscaling[J]. CLIMATE RESEARCH,2017,71(3). |
APA | Fiddes, S.,&Timbal, B..(2017).Future impacts of climate change on streamflows across Victoria, Australia: making use of statistical downscaling.CLIMATE RESEARCH,71(3). |
MLA | Fiddes, S.,et al."Future impacts of climate change on streamflows across Victoria, Australia: making use of statistical downscaling".CLIMATE RESEARCH 71.3(2017). |
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