Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.3354/cr01418 |
Global warming-induced changes in climate zones based on CMIP5 projections | |
Belda, Michal; Holtanova, Eva; Kalvova, Jaroslava; Halenka, Tomas | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0936-577X |
EISSN | 1616-1572 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 71期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Czech Republic |
英文摘要 | Climate classifications can provide an effective tool for integrated assessment of climate model results. We present an analysis of future global climate projections performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) project by means of Koppen-Trewartha classification. Maps of future climate type distributions were created along with the analysis of the ensemble spread. The simulations under scenarios with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 showed a substantial decline in ice cap, tundra, and boreal climate in the warming world, accompanied by an expansion of temperate climates, dry climates, and savanna, nearly unanimous within the CMIP5 ensemble. Results for the subtropical climate types were generally not conclusive. Changes in climate zones were also analyzed in comparison with the individual model performance for the historical period 1961-1990. The magnitude of change was higher than model errors only for tundra, boreal, and temperate continental climate types. For other types, the response was mostly smaller than model error, or there was considerable disagreement among the ensemble members. Altogether, around 14% of the continental area is expected to change climate types by the end of the 21st century under the projected RCP4.5 forcing and 20% under the RCP8.5 scenario. |
英文关键词 | Koppen-Trewartha climate classification Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 CMIP5 Global climate model Climate type change Representative concentration pathways |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000390103000002 |
WOS关键词 | CLASSIFICATION ; TEMPERATURE ; SIMULATIONS ; MULTIMODEL ; SCENARIOS ; MODELS ; SHIFTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15231 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Charles Univ Prague, Dept Meteorol & Environm Protect, Prague 18200, Czech Republic |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Belda, Michal,Holtanova, Eva,Kalvova, Jaroslava,et al. Global warming-induced changes in climate zones based on CMIP5 projections[J]. CLIMATE RESEARCH,2017,71(1). |
APA | Belda, Michal,Holtanova, Eva,Kalvova, Jaroslava,&Halenka, Tomas.(2017).Global warming-induced changes in climate zones based on CMIP5 projections.CLIMATE RESEARCH,71(1). |
MLA | Belda, Michal,et al."Global warming-induced changes in climate zones based on CMIP5 projections".CLIMATE RESEARCH 71.1(2017). |
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