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DOI | 10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.04.016 |
Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific | |
Gong, Zhiqiang1,2; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad3,4; Qiao, Shaobo5; Hu, Po5; Feng, Guolin1,2 | |
2017-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0169-8095 |
EISSN | 1873-2895 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 193 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Saudi Arabia; Pakistan |
英文摘要 | This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM's summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP. |
英文关键词 | Summer precipitation Interaction East Asia-Pacific teleconnection Predictability BCC_CSM |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000403995200015 |
WOS关键词 | INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; WESTERN PACIFIC ; DECADAL CHANGE ; CLIMATE ; MONSOON ; CHINA ; ASSOCIATION ; DYNAMICS ; SYSTEM ; SCHEME |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15196 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 2.Natl Climate Ctr, Climate Predict Div, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 3.King Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Earth Sci & Engn Dept, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia; 4.Minist Climate Change, Global Change Impact Studies Ctr, Islamabad, Pakistan; 5.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gong, Zhiqiang,Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad,Qiao, Shaobo,et al. Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2017,193. |
APA | Gong, Zhiqiang,Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad,Qiao, Shaobo,Hu, Po,&Feng, Guolin.(2017).Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,193. |
MLA | Gong, Zhiqiang,et al."Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 193(2017). |
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