GSTDTAP  > 地球科学
DOI10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.04.016
Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific
Gong, Zhiqiang1,2; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad3,4; Qiao, Shaobo5; Hu, Po5; Feng, Guolin1,2
2017-09-01
发表期刊ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
ISSN0169-8095
EISSN1873-2895
出版年2017
卷号193
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China; Saudi Arabia; Pakistan
英文摘要

This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM's summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.


英文关键词Summer precipitation Interaction East Asia-Pacific teleconnection Predictability BCC_CSM
领域地球科学
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000403995200015
WOS关键词INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; WESTERN PACIFIC ; DECADAL CHANGE ; CLIMATE ; MONSOON ; CHINA ; ASSOCIATION ; DYNAMICS ; SYSTEM ; SCHEME
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/15196
专题地球科学
作者单位1.Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;
2.Natl Climate Ctr, Climate Predict Div, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;
3.King Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Earth Sci & Engn Dept, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia;
4.Minist Climate Change, Global Change Impact Studies Ctr, Islamabad, Pakistan;
5.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Gong, Zhiqiang,Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad,Qiao, Shaobo,et al. Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific[J]. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,2017,193.
APA Gong, Zhiqiang,Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad,Qiao, Shaobo,Hu, Po,&Feng, Guolin.(2017).Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,193.
MLA Gong, Zhiqiang,et al."Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 193(2017).
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